中国经济转型期政府债务与经济增长关联性研究

发布时间：2018-01-15 23:30

本文关键词：中国经济转型期政府债务与经济增长关联性研究　出处：《武汉理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以后,中国维持了惊人的三十多年的经济增长,另一方面,全球经济一体化程度不断深入,中国在世界舞台上的话语权不断加重。在经济转型过程中,我国一直在努力尝试进一步推进市场化进程的步伐,但现实中政府的行为在经济增长过程中的作用仍然不可忽视,其所处地位仍然比较突出。在经济发展环境与发展前景不确定的背景下,结合中国经济转型期的特殊阶段,探究政府债务与经济增长之间的关联性是一个有益的尝试。首先,梳理了政府债务与经济增长的相关理论,并对两者相互影响的机理进行了整理分析,并对美国债务危机与欧洲主权债务危机的历程与特点进行了深入分析,得出了有利于我国发展的经验启示。其次,结合我国经济转型的大背景,对我国政府债务与经济增长的现状进行了分析,并得出了我国在经济转型期政府债务内部层面与外部层面的问题。然后,基于历史经验数据,运用多种计量分析方法,实证研究了经济转型期我国政府债务与经济增长之间的关联性问题,结果发现在对两者的相关性初判中发现,在经济转型期,我国政府债务与经济增长之间确实存在着非常强的灰色关联性,同时格兰杰因果检验发现,经济转型期,我国政府债务的变动能够引起长期内的经济增长的变动,在短期内的这种单向影响效果较小；在对两者关联性进行进一步深入研究发现,在经济转型期我国政府债务水平与经济的增长之间存在着非线性关联,通过分位数回归发现,适当水平的政府债务对于经济的增长有着显著的正向促进作用,但过高的政府债务对于经济的增长的促进作用不显著。最后基于研究结果,从风险管控、规范政府行为、深化财政体制改革等方面提出了有利于我国政府债务发展与经济转型的政策建议。
[Abstract]:After the reform and opening - up , China has maintained an astonishing 30 - year economic growth . On the other hand , the degree of global economic integration is deepening , and China ' s discourse right in the world stage is worsening . In the process of economic transformation , our country has been trying to further advance the pace of the marketization process , but the role of the government in the process of economic growth is still outstanding . In the context of uncertain economic development environment and development prospect , it is a useful attempt to explore the relationship between government debt and economic growth in the context of uncertain economic development environment and development prospect . First , the theory of government debt and economic growth is analyzed , and the mechanism of mutual influence is analyzed , and the history and characteristics of American debt crisis and European sovereign debt crisis are analyzed in depth . Secondly , according to the background of our country ' s economic transformation , the present situation of our country ' s government debt and economic growth is analyzed , and the problems of the internal and external aspects of the government ' s debt in the transition period are drawn . Then , based on historical experience data , the relationship between government debt and economic growth in the period of economic transition is studied empirically . It is found that in the period of economic transition , there is a strong grey relation between government debt and economic growth . Finally , based on the results of the research , this paper puts forward the policy suggestions for the government ' s debt development and economic transformation from the aspects of risk control , regulation of government behavior and deepening financial system reform .

【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124;F812.5

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