中印出口贸易结构变迁及其对经济增长的影响效应研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 12:28

本文关键词： 出口贸易结构出口贡献率拉动效应经贸合作　出处：《湖南大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国和印度，作为两个最大的发展中国家，随着其经济和贸易的迅猛发展，吸引了全世界越来越多的目光。近年来，中印两国领导人频繁接触，政治和经济领域的合作不断加强。目前，中国和印度分别作为世界上第一位、第五位的对外贸易大国，彼此之间的贸易依赖关系也是不言而喻的。印度已经成为中国的十大贸易伙伴之一，且是我国南亚地区的第一大贸易国；到2011年，中国已经超越美国成为印度第一大贸易伙伴国。印度对中国的贸易依赖性相对而言要更高一些。基于WIOD提供的1995~2009年投入产出表中（35×35部门）中印两国对外出口贸易和双边贸易的数据，本文分析两国出口贸易结构的变化，，分产业和部门计算两国由出口形成的GDP、出口对GDP形成的贡献率、单位出口贡献系数以及出口增长对GDP增长的贡献率，比较了中印两国对外出口贸易的异同，探讨了两国之间的贸易关系。中印两国的出口贸易结构不管是从世界的角度还是双边的角度都在不断优化，技术水平不断上升，但中国的出口贸易结构改善程度要高于印度。中印在部门的出口贡献率和经济增长拉动效应方面存在差异，两国之间并不构成完全的贸易竞争，而是存在明显上升的互补性趋势。因此中印之间应该扩大经贸合作，发挥优势互补，促进两国国内产业结构的调整和技术水平的提升，实现“双赢”的局面。通过以上宏观层面的中印对外出口贸易总体数据详尽分析，以及微观层面部门的数据指标测算，可以得出，中国和印度在为各自在世界贸易的份额提高感到欣慰的同时，应该重视贸易结构内部的变化，特别是中印双边贸易的主要部门之间的转变，这有助于中印充分利用两国资源，发挥优势互补，促进双方产业结构调整，使出口增长对经济增长的影响效应多表现为正的拉动作用。这也为中国与其它发展中国家如何开展良好的贸易关系，促进中国与广大发展中国家的经贸政治往来提供新的、更为全面的借鉴依据。
[Abstract]:China and India, as the two largest developing countries, have attracted more and more attention from the world with the rapid development of their economy and trade. In recent years, the leaders of China and India have been in frequent contact with each other, and cooperation in the political and economic fields has been continuously strengthened. At present, China and India are the first and 5th largest foreign trade countries in the world, respectively. It is also self-evident that India has become one of China's ten trading partners and is the largest trading country in South Asia. By 2011, China had overtaken the United States as India's largest trading partner. India's trade dependence on China was relatively higher. Based on the data of export trade and bilateral trade between China and India in the input-output table from 1995 to 2009 provided by WIOD, this paper analyzes the changes in the structure of export trade between China and India. The contribution rate of export to GDP, the contribution coefficient of unit export and the contribution rate of export growth to GDP growth are calculated by industry and sector. This paper compares the similarities and differences between China and India's foreign export trade and probes into the trade relations between the two countries. The structure of export trade between China and India is constantly optimized from both the world and bilateral perspectives. The technological level is rising, but China's export trade structure has improved more than India's. There are differences between China and India in terms of sector export contribution rate and economic growth pull effect. China and India should expand economic and trade cooperation and complement each other with each other. To promote the adjustment of domestic industrial structure and technological level of the two countries to achieve a "win-win" situation. Through the above macro-level analysis of the overall data of Sino-Indian foreign export trade, as well as the micro-level sector of the data indicators, we can get. While China and India are pleased to see their share of world trade increase, they should pay attention to the changes in the structure of trade, especially among the major sectors of bilateral trade between China and India. This will help China and India make full use of the resources of the two countries, give full play to their complementary advantages, and promote the adjustment of the industrial structure of both sides. Most of the effects of export growth on economic growth are positive, which is also how China and other developing countries develop good trade relations. Promoting economic, trade and political exchanges between China and developing countries provides a new and more comprehensive basis for reference.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.62;F753.51;F124;F135.1

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