山东省碳排放状况及其影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-01-22 10:05

本文关键词： 二氧化碳排放影响因素 VAR模型脉冲响应分析　出处：《山东理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着全球气候变暖的趋势日渐明显,世界各地极端气候事件频发,温室气体的减排问题引起了广泛关注。我国是世界上最大的发展中国家,也是碳排放总量和增量最大的国家,减排形势十分严峻。改革开放以来山东省的经济发展取得了很大成就,人民生活水平不断提高,但在经济快速增长的同时,高投入、高排放的增长模式也对生态环境造成了严重的破坏。在国家大力倡导发展低碳经济的背景下,如何在保证经济增长速度的同时完成二氧化碳的减排任务,已经成为山东省在发展道路上难以回避的一个问题。为解决这个难题,需要深入研究山东省的碳排放状况及其影响因素,从而寻找节能减排的有效途径。本文首先以低碳经济的相关理论为基础,梳理了碳排放与其影响因素方面的研究成果,分析了山东省碳排放的现状及变化趋势特征。其次,利用山东省1990年至2010年的数据,估算了山东省的二氧化碳排放量,选取GDP、能源强度、产业结构、城市化水平和能源价格五个变量作为影响因素,建立了山东省二氧化碳排放量及影响因素间的VAR模型,并使用脉冲响应函数和方差分解探索影响系数的大小和时期变化规律。研究表明：山东碳排放量对经济增长状况和能源强度的冲击反应十分敏感,产业结构、城市化水平和能源价格随时期变化的响应比较稳定；能源强度对碳排放量的贡献度最大,是影响山东省碳排量的最主要因素,其次为GDP和能源价格,产业结构和城市化水平的贡献度相对较小；研究期内,各变量影响系数在短期和长期呈现明显的差异性。最后,在实证分析的基础上,结合山东省资源环境与经济发展的特点,提出了相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the increasing trend of global warming and frequent extreme climate events around the world, the issue of greenhouse gas emission reduction has aroused widespread concern. China is the largest developing country in the world. Since the reform and opening up, Shandong Province has made great achievements in economic development, people's living standards continue to improve, but at the same time of rapid economic growth. High input, high emission growth model has also caused serious damage to the ecological environment. In the context of the country vigorously advocated the development of a low-carbon economy. How to ensure the speed of economic growth at the same time to complete the task of reducing carbon dioxide emissions has become an unavoidable problem on the road of development in Shandong Province. In order to solve this problem. In order to find the effective way of energy saving and emission reduction, it is necessary to deeply study the carbon emission situation and its influencing factors in Shandong Province. Firstly, this paper is based on the theory of low-carbon economy. Combing the research results of carbon emissions and its influencing factors, the paper analyzes the current situation and changing trend of carbon emissions in Shandong Province. Secondly, using the data from 1990 to 2010 in Shandong Province. The carbon dioxide emissions of Shandong Province were estimated, and five variables were selected as influencing factors: GDP, energy intensity, industrial structure, urbanization level and energy price. The VAR model of carbon dioxide emission and its influencing factors in Shandong Province was established. Pulse response function and variance decomposition are used to explore the magnitude and temporal variation of the influence coefficient. The results show that the carbon emissions of Shandong Province are sensitive to the impact of economic growth and energy intensity, and the industrial structure. The response of urbanization level and energy price is relatively stable; The contribution of energy intensity to carbon emission is the largest, which is the most important factor affecting carbon emission in Shandong Province, followed by GDP and energy price, and the contribution of industrial structure and urbanization level is relatively small. During the research period, the influence coefficient of each variable shows obvious difference in the short and long term. Finally, on the basis of empirical analysis, combined with the characteristics of resources, environment and economic development in Shandong Province, the relevant policy recommendations are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：山东理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X321;F127

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