美元冲击及其应对策略研究

发布时间：2018-01-22 10:19

本文关键词： 美元供给美元冲击美元环流人民币升值通货膨胀　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2008年底的全球金融危机以及近来欧债危机的爆发，不断地引发人们对国际货币体系改革的关注和思考。布雷顿森林体系崩溃之后，国际货币呈现多元化格局，但是美元的中心地位并没有根本动摇。由于美国的经济地位，美元不仅是美国的国家货币，还是现行国际货币制度中的关键货币，具有双重地位和作用。美国在制定经济政策时主要考虑美元作为国家通货的作用，但是却忽视了其“量化宽松”货币政策对全球通货膨胀和国际汇率变动的巨大冲击，也忽视了对诸如中国等发展中国家和新兴市场国家经济发展的影响。在此背景下，，估算美国货币供应量的规模，探讨美国货币供给冲击的影响机制，将有助于我们分析美元国际供应量的变动对我国经济的影响。本文采用理论和数据、图表相结合的方法，从理论出发，用数字和图表说话，研究美元冲击对我国经济的影响。文章首先介绍美元本位制下美元供给的机制，并在此基础上估算出美元国际供应量。然后从美元环流的角度分析美元冲击的影响机制，并用此来分析美元冲击引发的次贷危机。接着从美元冲击的影响实例出发，研究了美元冲击对中美贸易差额、我国通货膨胀、外汇储备、汇率以及经济结构的影响。最后在前述分析以及对比分析日本、德国应对本币升值的基础上，提出我国应该调整产业结构、加强和完善境外资本流入、扩大内需、以及积极推进国际货币制度改革等策略。
[Abstract]:In end of 2008, the global financial crisis and the recent outbreak of European debt crisis, people continue to arouse attention to the reform of the international monetary system and thinking. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. The international currency presents a diversified pattern, but the central position of the dollar is not fundamentally shaken. Because of the economic status of the United States, the dollar is not only the national currency of the United States, but also the key currency in the current international monetary system. The United States mainly considers the role of the dollar as the national currency when making economic policy. But it ignores the huge impact of its "quantitative easing" monetary policy on global inflation and changes in international exchange rates. It also ignores the impact on the economic development of developing and emerging market countries such as China. In this context, we estimate the size of the money supply in the United States and explore the impact mechanism of the impact of US money supply shocks. It will help us to analyze the impact of the changes in the international supply of US dollars on our economy. This paper studies the impact of US dollar impact on China's economy by means of theory, data, and charts, starting from theory, and using figures and charts to study the impact of the impact of US dollar shocks on China's economy. This paper first introduces the mechanism of US dollar supply under the dollar standard system, and then estimates the international supply of US dollar on this basis, and then analyzes the impact mechanism of US dollar shock from the point of view of US dollar circulation. And then from the impact of the impact of the impact of the impact of the U. S. dollar on the balance of trade between China and the United States, China's inflation, foreign exchange reserves. Finally, on the basis of the above analysis and comparative analysis, Japan and Germany should adjust the industrial structure, strengthen and perfect the inflow of foreign capital. Expand domestic demand and actively promote the reform of the international monetary system and other strategies.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F827.12;F124;F821.6

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