中国城镇居民医疗、教育、购房支出压力对消费的影响

发布时间：2018-01-23 21:09

本文关键词： 城镇居民消费医疗支出教育支出购房支出保障体制　出处：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国经济高速发展,取得了举世瞩目的成就。然而,近年来,增长对投资和出口的过度依赖,使中国经济陷入深层次的矛盾之中——投资过度引发资产泡沫,但紧缩银根势必抑制投资降低经济增速；长期顺差带来人民币升值压力,而放任人民币升值必然影响出口。能够推动中国经济继续健康稳定发展的,似乎只剩“消费”这一驾马车。不过,中国的消费率自20世纪90年代以来就持续下降,作为中国最有消费潜力的群体——城镇居民——也缺乏消费热情。寻找有效提振消费,特别是城镇居民消费的策略,也因此具有极强的理论和现实意义。与近30年来城镇居民消费率下降形成鲜明对比的是,城镇居民承担的医疗、教育支出以及面对的住房售价持续上升。医疗、教育、购房支出压力不断增长,是否导致居民不敢消费、不愿消费?是否是抑制居民消费的重要因素?本文将围绕这一主题展开研究。研究方法上,本文一是通过回顾近现代主流消费理论和对中国城镇居民消费特征的分析,定性地分析医疗、教育、购房支出压力增长对消费的影响；二是利用近30年来宏观统计数据进行实证研究,研究模型源于莫迪利安尼等人上世纪50年代提出的生命周期消费函数模型,但根据中国国情和研究需要对模型进行了修正。本文研究的主要结论如下：首先,总城镇居民整体看,医疗、教育、购房支出压力增长对消费均存在负面影响,是抑制居民消费的重要因素；其次,对不同收入层次居民而言,医疗、教育支出对各收入层次居民的消费都存在负面影响,但高收入层次居民消费受医疗、教育支出的影响不明显,中低收入层次居民消费受到的影响明显,其影响程度随收入的降低而增强；第三,房价的上涨对不同收入层次居民而言,有着不同的意义,对于高收入层次居民而言,房价上涨意味着财富增加,对其消费有正向的推动,即产生了财富效应,而对中低收入层次居民而言,房价上涨意味着购房支出压力的增加,对消费产生了负面影响。最后,本文在实证研究的基础上,对提振消费、扩大内需提出政策性建议：首先是继续努力增加居民收入,要确保居民实际收入的增长幅度超过医疗、教育和购房支出压力的增幅,确保收入增长带来的消费红利不被后者抵消；其次是参照海外经验,建立和完善医疗、教育、住房保障机制,通过政府“托底”,消除居民消费的后顾之忧。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has developed at a high speed and has made remarkable achievements. However, in recent years, growth has become too dependent on investment and exports. It makes the Chinese economy fall into a deep contradiction: excessive investment leads to asset bubbles, but tight monetary policy is bound to restrain investment and reduce economic growth; The long-term surplus puts pressure on the renminbi to appreciate, and allowing it to rise will inevitably affect exports. The only thing that will drive China's economy to continue to grow healthily and steadily seems to be "consumption". China's consumption rate has been falling since 1990s, and as the most potential consumer group in China-urban residents-also lack the enthusiasm to find ways to effectively boost consumption. Especially, the strategy of urban residents'consumption is of great theoretical and practical significance. In contrast to the decline in the consumption rate of urban residents in the past 30 years, the expenditure on health care, education and housing prices of urban residents continues to rise. Does it mean that residents do not dare to spend or do not want to spend? Is it an important factor to restrain residents' consumption? This paper will focus on this subject. In terms of research methods, the first part of this paper is to analyze qualitatively the influence of the pressure growth of medical treatment, education and housing expenditure on the consumption by reviewing the modern mainstream consumption theory and analyzing the consumption characteristics of Chinese urban residents. The second is to use the macro statistical data in recent 30 years to carry on the empirical research, the research model is derived from the life cycle consumption function model put forward by Modigliani et al in -50s. However, the model is modified according to China's national conditions and research needs. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: firstly, the growth of expenditure pressure on health care, education and housing purchase has a negative impact on consumption, which is an important factor to restrain residents' consumption; Secondly, for residents of different income levels, medical care, education expenditure on the consumption of residents in all income levels have a negative impact, but the high income level residents consumption by medical treatment, education expenditure has no obvious impact. The low and middle income level residents' consumption is affected obviously, its influence degree increases with the decrease of income; Third, the rise of house prices for different income levels of residents, have different significance, for high-income level residents, the rise in house prices means wealth increases, to their consumption has a positive impetus. That is to say, the wealth effect is produced, but for the middle and low income level residents, the rising house price means the increase of the pressure on the purchase of housing, which has a negative impact on the consumption. Finally, on the basis of empirical research, this paper puts forward policy recommendations to boost consumption and expand domestic demand: first of all, we should continue to strive to increase residents' income, to ensure that the real increase of residents' income is greater than that of medical treatment. (B) the increase in pressure on education and home purchases to ensure that the consumer dividend from rising incomes is not offset by the latter; Secondly, referring to overseas experience, we should establish and improve medical, education and housing security mechanisms, and eliminate the worries of residents' consumption through the government.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1

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