经济与环境协调发展的模型分析与计量检验

发布时间：2018-01-31 11:58

本文关键词： 环境 CO排放经济增长协调发展环境库兹涅茨曲线　出处：《科研管理》2014年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为了分析经济与环境间能否实现协调发展,本文首先将资源环境因素纳入内生经济增长模型,运用最优控制方法得出了可持续发展能否实现以及实现条件。在此基础上,以我国1995-2011年30个省的CO2排放为例,通过构建联立方程模型和运用3SLS法对EKC假说进行了计量检验。结果表明:(1)当消费跨期替代弹性等满足一定条件时,即可实现经济与环境间的协调发展;(2)虽然现阶段经济增长与CO2排放呈正向变动,但EKC假说仍是成立的,即我国最终能实现两者间的协调发展;(3)工业结构、贸易开放度和城市化水平对碳排放不利,能源强度、一次能源消费结构和环境规制则正好相反,其中能源强度是影响碳排放的关键因素。
[Abstract]:In order to analyze whether the harmonious development between economy and environment can be realized, this paper firstly brings the resource and environment factors into the endogenous economic growth model. The realization and conditions of sustainable development are obtained by using the optimal control method. On this basis, CO2 emissions from 30 provinces in China from 1995 to 2011 are taken as an example. By constructing a simultaneous equation model and using 3SLS method to test the EKC hypothesis, the results show that: 1) when consumption intertemporal substitution elasticity and other conditions meet certain conditions. The harmonious development between economy and environment can be realized; (2) although economic growth and CO2 emissions change positively at the present stage, the EKC hypothesis is still established, that is, China can finally realize the coordinated development between the two; 3) Industrial structure, trade openness and urbanization level are disadvantageous to carbon emissions, but energy intensity, primary energy consumption structure and environmental regulation are just the opposite, among which energy intensity is the key factor affecting carbon emissions.
【作者单位】：重庆大学经济与工商管理学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“产业结构空间外溢性与区域产业结构升级协调发展的空间计量研究”(12YJC790041),起止时间:2012-02-2015-02
【分类号】：X22;F124;F224
【正文快照】： 1引言随着全球经济的迅速发展,人类生活质量有了极大的提升,但同时也出现了资源短缺、环境污染等严重问题,在此背景下,可持续发展思想应运而生。资源环境与经济增长关系问题是可持续发展研究的重要组成部分,资源环境问题也成为了未来社会是否能实现稳定持续发展的制约因素。因

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