新疆对外贸易与产业结构互动关系研究

发布时间：2018-02-03 11:08

本文关键词： 对外贸易产业结构脉冲响应 ADF Granger　出处：《新疆大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，中国经济取得了举世瞩目的成绩，对外贸易是经济发展的发动机这一论题再次得到了论证，，并且对外贸易总量在经济总量中占据着重要的地位，与此同时产业结构的调整也逐渐稳步的展开，两者之间到底是怎样的关系、存在什么问题需亟待解决，都需要我们去研究从而为我们的经济发展服务。在此过程中，新疆的对外贸易也有了飞速发展，尤其是新疆的地缘优势给新疆的发展带了独具特色的竞争力，为了更好的保证和促进新疆的经济良好健康发展，研究对外贸易与产业结构之间的关系具有重要的意义。当前的研究重点主要集中在产业结构和经济增长，以及对外贸易与经济增长之间的关系上，关于对外贸易和产业结构调整之间的研究不多，专门针对新疆的相关研究则更少，其理论体系尚未形成[1]。因此本文从新疆的对外贸易和产业结构入手，从理论和计量实证两个方面展开，结合新疆具有的独特的地缘特点和资源特点，分析对外贸易和产业结构之间存在的内部联系，以及一方在受到外部冲击时会对另一方产生怎样的影响以及产生影响的作用时间长短，以此为依据形成一个相对比较完善的分析结果，提出新疆产业结构调整、对外贸易拓展以及能够促进经济稳定长期发展的政策建议，希望能够为新疆的经济发展和产业结构调整提供些许的帮助。本文由六个部分构成，第一部分是导论，主要介绍本课题的研究背景、目的和意义，并且说明论文的研究方法以及创新之处。第二部分为文献综述部分，主要对国内外相关文献进行综述，然后对文献进行总结与评价。第三部分为对外贸易与产业结构相关理论介绍，主要从对外贸易相关理论、产业结构相关理论，以及产业结构与对外贸易相互关系理论三个方面着手，分别对其进行阐述，这也是本文以及相关论题文章的理论基础和依据。第四部分为新疆区域经济发展现状描述和分析，主要从新疆的对外贸易现状、产业结构现状、发展形式与趋势等方面着手，找出本区域与全国其他地方存在的差异及特殊性，为后文的分析做好铺垫。第五部分为新疆的对外贸易和产业结构之间的实证分析，运用ADF检验、协整、格兰杰因果检验以及脉冲响应函数等方法，分析两者之间的关系，找出变量之间的相互影响大小及作用时间长短，计算出每个变量冲击相对重要性，最后根据实证结果分析两者的优化趋势。第六部分为结论分析和政策建议。本部分主要是对上部分实证结果的分析，在综合分析的基础上提出对外贸易和产业结构改进方法和政策建议，以期实现两者长期良好的互动，相互促进并一起保证新疆经济又好又快发展。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has made remarkable achievements, the topic that foreign trade is the engine of economic development has been demonstrated again, and the total volume of foreign trade occupies an important position in the total economic volume. At the same time, the adjustment of the industrial structure is gradually developing steadily. What is the relationship between the two, and what problems need to be solved. In this process, the foreign trade of Xinjiang also has rapid development, especially the geographical advantage of Xinjiang has brought unique competitiveness to the development of Xinjiang. It is of great significance to study the relationship between foreign trade and industrial structure in order to ensure and promote the healthy development of Xinjiang economy. The current research focuses on the industrial structure and economic growth, as well as the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, and there is little research on the relationship between foreign trade and industrial structure adjustment. However, there is less research on Xinjiang, and its theoretical system has not yet been formed. [Therefore, this paper starts with the foreign trade and industrial structure of Xinjiang, starts from two aspects of theory and econometrics, and combines the unique geographical characteristics and resource characteristics of Xinjiang. This paper analyzes the internal relationship between foreign trade and industrial structure, and how one side will have an impact on the other when it is under external impact and the duration of the impact. Based on the results of a relatively perfect analysis, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the adjustment of industrial structure, the expansion of foreign trade and the promotion of economic stability and long-term development in Xinjiang. Hope to provide some help for Xinjiang's economic development and industrial structure adjustment. This paper is composed of six parts, the first part is an introduction, mainly introduces the research background, purpose and significance of this topic, and explains the research methods and innovations of the paper. The second part is the literature review part. The third part is the introduction of foreign trade and industrial structure related theory, mainly from the foreign trade related theory, industrial structure related theory. And the relationship between industrial structure and foreign trade theory of three aspects, respectively, to elaborate. This is also the theoretical basis and basis of this paper and related articles. Part 4th describes and analyzes the current situation of Xinjiang's regional economic development, mainly from the current situation of Xinjiang's foreign trade and industrial structure. To find out the differences and particularities between this region and other places in China. The 5th part is the empirical analysis between the foreign trade and industrial structure of Xinjiang, using ADF test, cointegration, Granger causality test and impulse response function. Analyze the relationship between the two, find out the size of the interaction between variables and the duration of action, calculate the impact of each variable relative importance. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis of the optimization trend of both. 6th part is the conclusion analysis and policy recommendations. This part is mainly the analysis of the above part of the empirical results. On the basis of comprehensive analysis, the paper puts forward the methods and policy suggestions for the improvement of foreign trade and industrial structure, in order to realize the long-term good interaction between the two, promote each other and ensure the sound and rapid development of Xinjiang's economy together.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F279.2;F752.8;F224

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