德欧产业内贸易与欧盟核心区经济结构变化的因果传导机制研究

发布时间：2018-02-10 07:27

本文关键词： 产业内贸易经济结构收敛因果关系路径　出处：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济学中最广为探讨并试图回答的重要问题之一是,国家间的经济往来对各个国家的经济发展有着什么样的影响,两者之间的因果关系是怎样的?更具体的,国家间的经济往来最重要的方面莫过于国际贸易,近几十年来最引人关注的是国家间产业内贸易的发展。国家问经济发展的一个重要话题是,经济产业的结构收敛或发散问题,即国家间的经济结构是趋同的,还是差异变大的? 本文将以1991年至2007年间,欧盟核心十四个国家的十七个制造业产业的结构收敛和发散变化趋势,以及德国与这些国家在相同产业中的产业内贸易,作为主要研究对象,分析两者间的因果传导机制和路径。本文首先使用研究经济结构收敛的σ收敛检验和β收敛检验的方法,分析十七个制造业产业在欧盟十四国中的就业和产出数据,判断其收敛或发散趋势。其次,使用产业内贸易文献常用的G—L指数,衡量德欧间这些产业的产业内贸易程度。最后,构建有向非循环图DAG模型,分析德欧产业内贸易和欧盟核心区经济结构收敛或发散之间的因果传导路径机制。本文结构是：第1章介绍所要研究的问题的背景,包括德欧产业内贸易的历史发展,以及欧盟核心区经济结构变化发展的过程。第2章回顾总结了前人的研究文献,包括产业内贸易和经济结构收敛或发散的理论和实证文献。第3章介绍了本文的研究方法,包括产业内贸易程度的衡量指标G—-L指数、经济结构收敛的σ-检验和β检验方法,以及本文所使用的DAG模型的构建方法和检验的PC算法。第4章介绍了研究的数据来源,并分析模型的实证结果和经济学含义。第5章进行了总结并探讨了相关启示。
[Abstract]:One of the most widely discussed and important questions in economics is: what is the impact of economic exchanges between countries on the economic development of each country, and what is the causal relationship between the two? More specifically, the most important aspect of economic exchanges between countries is international trade. In recent decades, what has attracted most attention is the development of intra-industry trade between countries. The convergence or divergence of the structure of the economic industry, that is, whether the economic structure between countries is convergent, or is the difference becoming larger? From 1991 to 2007, the paper will focus on the trend of convergence and divergence of 17 manufacturing industries in 14 EU core countries, as well as the intra-industry trade between Germany and these countries in the same industries. The mechanism and path of causal conduction between the two are analyzed. In this paper, the methods of 蟽 convergence test and 尾 convergence test are used to analyze the employment and output data of 17 manufacturing industries in 14 countries of the European Union, and to judge the convergence or divergence trend. The G-L index, which is commonly used in intra-industry trade literature, is used to measure the degree of intra-industry trade between Germany and Europe. Finally, a directed acyclic graph (DAG) model is constructed. This paper analyzes the causal conduction path mechanism between intra-industry trade in Germany and Europe and the convergence or divergence of the economic structure in the core region of the EU. The structure of this paper is as follows: chapter 1 introduces the background of the problems to be studied, including the historical development of intra-industry trade between Germany and Europe, and the process of economic structure change and development in the core region of the European Union. Chapter 3 introduces the research methods of this paper, including the index of intra-industry trade, the 蟽 -test and 尾 test of economic structure convergence. Chapter 4 introduces the data sources of the research, and analyzes the empirical results and economic implications of the model. Chapter 5 summarizes and discusses the relevant enlightenment.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F755.16;F15;F224

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