浙江省碳排放特征及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-02-10 09:28

本文关键词： 低碳经济碳排放强度影响因素浙江省　出处：《浙江理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：为了应对气候变化，中国政府于2009年提出了碳减排的目标，即到2020年单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放量比2005年降低40%-45%。根据这一要求，浙江省十二五规划中提出，到2015年浙江省单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放量将比2010年下降19%，单位国内生产总值能耗下降18%。那么，浙江省能否实现到2020年碳排放强度比2005年降低45%的目标？如果能够实现，是否意味着存在更大的碳减排空间，碳减排的目标设定是否需要重新考虑；如果不能实现该目标，那么需要考虑哪些关键因素影响碳排放强度，思考低碳发展的可能途径，使目标的实现成为可能。本文对碳排放问题及低碳发展相关研究进行了梳理，在分析浙江省碳排放特征的基础上，验证了经济发展水平、产业结构对碳排放强度的影响。首先，利用能源平衡表中的能源消费数据，测算浙江省1995-2010年间的碳排放量，从碳排放总量、碳排放强度、能源结构、行业碳排放结构等方面分析浙江省的碳排放特征。其次，利用相关数据，通过单位根检验、协整检验和模型回归，对经济发展水平、产业结构和碳排放强度之间的影响关系进行实证研究。最后，对低碳经济的发展提出了一些建议。实证分析发现：浙江省经济发展水平与人均碳排放量、碳排放强度之间存在三次函数关系，而并不是严格的库兹涅茨倒“U”曲线；经济发展水平提高到一定阶段，碳排放强度开始降低，但如果按照目前的下降趋势，无法实现到2020年比2005年减少45%的目标；第三产业产值比例越高，碳排放强度就越低，两者存在显著的负相关。结果表明，浙江省发展低碳经济必须走产业低碳化之路，应重点发展低投入低碳排的第三产业。同时，推动能源产业的革新，，开发利用节能技术和清洁能源技术，实现能源低碳化发展。
[Abstract]:In order to combat climate change, the Chinese government set a target for reducing carbon emissions in 2009, that is, by 2020, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product will be 40 to 45 lower than those of 2005. According to this requirement, Zhejiang Province proposed in its 12th Five-Year Plan. By 2015, the carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP of Zhejiang Province will be 19% lower than that of 2010, and the energy consumption per unit GDP will drop 18%. If so, does it mean that there is more room for carbon reductions, whether the target setting for carbon reductions needs to be reconsidered and, if that target is not achieved, what key factors need to be considered to affect the intensity of carbon emissions, Thinking about the possible ways of low-carbon development, so that the realization of the goal becomes possible. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province, the effects of economic development level and industrial structure on carbon emission intensity are verified. Using the energy consumption data in the energy balance table, the carbon emissions from 1995 to 2010 in Zhejiang Province are calculated, and the characteristics of the carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province are analyzed from the aspects of total carbon emissions, carbon intensity, energy structure, industry carbon emission structure, and so on. Based on the relevant data, the relationship among economic development level, industrial structure and carbon emission intensity is studied empirically by unit root test, cointegration test and model regression. Finally, some suggestions on the development of low carbon economy are put forward. The empirical analysis shows that there is a cubic function relationship between the economic development level of Zhejiang Province and carbon emissions per capita and carbon emission intensity, but not the strict Kuznets inverted "U" curve, and the level of economic development is improved to a certain stage. The intensity of carbon emission began to decrease, but if the current downward trend, the target of 45% less than 2005 could not be achieved by 2020. The higher the ratio of output value of the tertiary industry, the lower the intensity of carbon emission. The results show that there is a significant negative correlation between the two. The development of low carbon economy in Zhejiang Province must take the road of industrial low carbonization, and should focus on developing the tertiary industry with low input and low carbon emission. At the same time, it should promote the innovation of energy industry, develop and utilize energy saving technology and clean energy technology, and realize the development of energy low carbonization.
【学位授予单位】：浙江理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F205

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