中国边疆地区经济周期研究

发布时间：2018-02-17 02:57

本文关键词： 边疆地区经济周期总供给总需求　出处：《云南大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文主要研究改革开放以来,边疆地区经济周期增长规律和影响经济波动的因素以及国家宏观调控政策对经济周期的影响。本文首先通过边疆地区经济增长率曲线,运用“波谷——波谷”的划分方法对边疆地区的经济周期进行了划分,运用比较分析法比较了边疆地区和内陆地区以及全国的经济周期异同点。然后又比较分析了边疆内部东北地区、西北地区和西南地区三个地区经济周期波动的异同点。其次从总供给和总需求角度分析边疆地区经济周期波动的原因,比较不同因素对经济周期波动影响的差异程度。具体从第一产业、第二产业、第三产业以及工业、消费、投资和省际贸易差额等方面分析它们对边疆地区经济波动影响的差异,找出制约边疆地区经济发展的因素。同时还比较了边疆地区内部三区域在供给和需求方面对经济周期波动不同的影响程度。本文通过相关研究,得出以下结论：改革开放以来,边疆地区的平均增长速度低于内陆地区,但是稳定性比内陆好；三次产业结构中第二产业占经济总量的比重最大,第二产业增长与经济增长的相关性最强,第二产业对经济的贡献率也最高,同时第一产业在经济发展中的地位在减弱,第三产业的地位在增强,对经济增长的贡献在增大,与经济增长的相关性也在加强；需求方面,比较高的消费率和投资率并没有导致高的经济增长速度,这主要是由于巨大的省际贸易逆差抵消了投资、消费和外贸净出口对经济增长的贡献,抑制了边疆省份的经济增长。
[Abstract]:This paper mainly studies the law of economic cycle growth and the factors influencing economic fluctuation in the frontier area since the reform and opening up, as well as the influence of the national macro-control policy on the economic cycle. In this paper, the economic cycle of borderland area is divided by using the method of "trough-trough" through the curve of economic growth rate in frontier area. The similarities and differences of the economic cycles in the border areas, inland areas and the whole country are compared by using the comparative analysis method, and then the similarities and differences of the economic cycle fluctuations in the northeast, northwest and southwest regions of the border areas are compared and analyzed. Secondly, from the angle of total supply and total demand, this paper analyzes the reasons of the economic cycle fluctuation in the frontier area, and compares the different degree of influence of different factors on the economic cycle fluctuation. Specifically, from the primary industry, the second industry, the third industry, and the industry and consumption, Investment and inter-provincial trade balance, etc., are analyzed in terms of their effects on the economic fluctuations in the border areas. Find out the factors that restrict the economic development of the borderland, and compare the different influence degree of the supply and demand on the economic cycle fluctuation in the three regions of the border area at the same time. In this paper, we draw the following conclusions: since the reform and opening up, the average growth rate of the frontier areas is lower than that of the inland areas, but the stability is better than that of the inland areas, and the secondary industry accounts for the largest proportion of the total economic volume in the third industrial structure. The correlation between the growth of the secondary industry and economic growth is strongest, and the contribution rate of the secondary industry to the economy is also the highest. At the same time, the position of the primary industry in economic development is weakening, the position of the tertiary industry is increasing, and the contribution to economic growth is increasing. The correlation with economic growth is also increasing; on the demand side, higher consumption and investment rates have not led to high rates of economic growth, mainly because large inter-provincial trade deficits have offset investment. The contribution of consumption and net exports to economic growth has dampened economic growth in frontier provinces.
【学位授予单位】：云南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127

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