昭通市经济增长潜力及发展趋势研究

发布时间：2018-02-21 00:35

本文关键词： 经济增长预测生产要素产业结构经济制度索罗方程　出处：《云南大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在全球经济飞速发展的今天,各经济指标可越来越真实的反映一个国家或地区的经济发展水平,而这其中,最具有代表性的当属国内生产总值与地区生产总值,它们均比较真实的反映了该国家或该地区的经济发展水平。故而,在经济学发展的几百年间,经济增长预测,确切的说是对生产总值的预测研究一直都受到了各国经济学家的追捧,而本文立足于前人经典经济学理论,并且结合实际情况,具体对我国云南省昭通市的经济增长潜力以及经济发展趋势做了一定的研究与预测,希望在昭通市经济发展的重要时期,为昭通市的下一步发展建言献策。本文立足于昭通市近10年来的具体经济发展状况,从经济要素的投入、产业结构的转变以及经济政策的实施等方面具体的对昭通市的经济发展潜力进行了预测与研究。第一,本文沿着经济增长理论的演变过程,依次介绍了古典经济学派至新经济学派各时期各派别关于经济增长理论的具体研究成果,及其具体理论的利与弊；第二,本文就昭通市自2001年至2014年14年间关于其地区生产总值、人均可支配收入、社会总消费需求以及投资等各经济指标做了具体分析,大致勾画出来昭通市现如今的经济发展状况,以期为后文中的经济增长预测做出铺垫：第三,本文在经典的索罗经济增长模型基础上,将其中的资本要素进行了滞后处理,希望可以更加接近于实际情况,并且依据昭通市近15年的各项经济数据,以此拟合出了关于昭通市的具体经济增长预测模型；第四,本文在三种生产要素的基础上,从昭通市经济产业结构和经济制度的角度对昭通市的经济增长前景做了一定的分析预测。其中针对昭通市经济结构变化趋势,针对三大产业在昭通市生产总值中所占的比重,理清了经济结构对昭通市经济增长的影响。本文最后对前文进行了总结,并在前文研究成果的基础上,为昭通市今后的经济发展趋势提出了一些可行的建议,力求帮助昭通市更快的完成经济方式的转变,从而进入经济的高速发展时期。
[Abstract]:Today, with the rapid development of the global economy, economic indicators can more and more truly reflect the level of economic development of a country or region, and the most representative of which is GDP and regional GDP. They all reflect more realistically the level of economic development of the country or region. Therefore, economic growth is forecast in the hundreds of years of economic development. To be exact, the research on the prediction of GDP has been sought after by economists all over the world, and this paper is based on the classical economic theories of predecessors and combines with the actual situation. This paper makes a certain research and forecast on the economic growth potential and economic development trend of Zhaotong City in Yunnan Province, hoping to offer suggestions for the next development of Zhaotong City in the important period of economic development of Zhaotong City. Based on the specific economic development of Zhaotong City in the past 10 years, this paper forecasts and studies the economic development potential of Zhaotong City from the aspects of the input of economic elements, the transformation of industrial structure and the implementation of economic policies. Following the evolution process of economic growth theory, this paper introduces the specific research results of each school of classical economics to the new economic school about economic growth theory in turn, and the advantages and disadvantages of the specific theory. This paper makes a concrete analysis of the economic indicators of Zhaotong City from 2001 to 2014 on its regional gross domestic product, per capita disposable income, total social consumption demand and investment, and outlines the present economic development situation of Zhaotong City. The purpose of this paper is to pave the way for the forecast of economic growth in the following articles. Thirdly, based on the classical Soro economic growth model, this paper deals with the capital elements in the model, hoping to be closer to the actual situation. And according to the economic data of Zhaotong city in the past 15 years, we fit the specific economic growth forecast model of Zhaotong city. 4th, this paper is based on the three factors of production. The economic growth prospect of Zhaotong city is analyzed and forecasted from the angle of the economic industrial structure and economic system of Zhaotong city. In the light of the changing trend of the economic structure of Zhaotong city and the proportion of the three industries in the gross domestic product of Zhaotong city, Clarify the economic structure of Zhaotong City economic growth impact. At the end of this paper, the author summarizes the previous research results, and puts forward some feasible suggestions for the future economic development trend of Zhaotong City, in order to help Zhaotong City to complete the transformation of economic mode more quickly. Thus enter the period of high-speed economic development.
【学位授予单位】：云南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F127

【引证文献】