四川省城市化与经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2018-02-22 12:33

本文关键词： 四川省城市化经济增长复合指标法 VAR模型　出处：《西南财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城市化是经济与社会发展走向现代化进程中的一个不以人的意志为转移的客观规律,也是经济社会发展的重要源泉,并且越来越成为经济增长、社会进步的重要推动力量。目前,城市化被全国各地看作是谋求经济增长的又一重要突破口,无论是理论研究还是政策实践都非常重视发挥城市化的作用。进入21世纪以来,随着经济的快速发展,四川省的城市化水平也取得了较快提高,2010年末的全省城镇化率达到40.2%,但根据相关研究,四川省的城市化发展水平仍明显滞后于经济增长。四川省的城市化程度跟全国平均水平相比仍有9.5个百分点的差距,同时在省内部各地区间也存在显著差异。因此有必要对四川省城市化与经济增长之间的关系进行分析,为实现四川省城市化与经济增长的协调发展提供新的思路。本文对四川省城市化历史进程、现状和存在的问题进行了系统全面的分析；根据四川省2010年18个城市的截面数据,建立综合指标评价体系,运用主成分分析和聚类分析对省内各城市的城市化水平进行了综合测度和差异分类分析；以1978-2010年时间序列数据为基础,建立向量自回归模型(VAR),运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,从实证角度对四川省城市化与经济增长的关系进行计量分析。研究结果表明：通过采用复合指标法对四川省18个城市的城市化水平现状进行综合测度,发现四川省城市化水平与经济增长有很大相关性。建立VAR模型进行计量分析,发现四川省城市化与经济增长是正相关关系,相互间存在着长期的动态均衡关系；四川省城市化与经济增长存在互促作用,但相对来言城市化对经济增长的作用更为明显,即城市化对经济增长的促进作用大于经济增长对城市化的反向带动作用。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is an objective law in the process of modernization of economic and social development, which does not shift with the will of human beings, and it is also an important source of economic and social development, and it has become more and more economic growth. At present, urbanization is regarded as another important breakthrough in the pursuit of economic growth in all parts of the country. Both theoretical research and policy practice attach great importance to the role of urbanization. Since 21th century, With the rapid development of economy, the urbanization level of Sichuan Province has also been improved rapidly. In end of 2010, the urbanization rate of Sichuan Province reached 40.2 percent, but according to the relevant research, The level of urbanization in Sichuan Province still lags behind economic growth. Compared with the national average, there is still a gap of 9.5 percentage points between the urbanization level of Sichuan Province and the national average. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the relationship between urbanization and economic growth in Sichuan Province so as to provide a new way of thinking for the coordinated development of urbanization and economic growth in Sichuan Province. This paper makes a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the historical process, present situation and existing problems of urbanization in Sichuan Province, and establishes a comprehensive index evaluation system based on the cross-section data of 18 cities in Sichuan Province in 2010. Based on the time series data of 1978-2010, the urbanization level of cities in the province is comprehensively measured and analyzed by means of principal component analysis and cluster analysis. The vector autoregressive model (VARA) is established. The relationship between urbanization and economic growth in Sichuan Province is analyzed by using impulse response function and variance decomposition method. The results show that the urbanization level of 18 cities in Sichuan Province is correlated with the economic growth by using the composite index method. The VAR model is established to analyze the urbanization level of Sichuan province. It is found that there is a positive correlation between urbanization and economic growth in Sichuan Province, and there is a long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between urbanization and economic growth in Sichuan Province, while urbanization and economic growth in Sichuan Province promote each other, but the effect of urbanization on economic growth is more obvious. That is, the promotion of urbanization to economic growth is greater than the reverse driving effect of economic growth on urbanization.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F299.27;F127

【相似文献】