山西农村消费市场开发的系统动力学研究

发布时间：2018-02-27 01:25

本文关键词： 农村消费市场生产消费生活消费系统动力学政策模拟　出处：《中北大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：投资、消费和出口贸易是拉动一国经济增长的“三驾马车”。但是，从对经济增长的贡献来看，三者并不均衡。目前，山西乃至我国的经济持续增长主要是靠投资拉动的。与之相比，消费则处于比较疲软的状态，尤其是消费需求中的农村消费需求。因此，如何开拓农村消费市场就成为当前我们需要面对的一个重要问题。山西地处我国中部，是煤炭大省，内需严重不足，特别是农村居民消费需求。截止2011年底，，山西农村人口达到2334.79万人，占全省总人口的64.98%，但农村居民的消费只占全省消费的30%。可见，山西农村居民消费疲软，农村消费市场潜力巨大。因此，研究如何进一步开发山西农村消费市场，可以有效地拉动地区经济的发展，推动经济增长方式的转变。本文首先对研究的背景、目的和意义、国内外的研究现状以及研究内容和方法做了简要的阐述。其次，系统阐述了农村消费市场的相关概念、居民消费的相关理论以及系统动力学的原理、建模步骤和特征。通过分析山西农村生产消费市场和生活消费市场的发展现状，发现山西农村消费市场发展疲软，农村居民消费不足。在对影响山西农村消费市场发展因素进行定性分析的基础上，运用系统动力学的理论和方法，用Vensim DSS软件构建了山西农村消费市场的系统动力学模型。通过系统仿真和政策模拟，我们可以看出，不论生产消费还是生活消费，均能拉动地区经济的发展。而居民的消费水平又会受到收入水平、流通水平、金融信贷等的影响。财政支农支出、社会保障建设、教育建设等又会影响农村居民收入水平的提高。最后，根据政策模拟结果，提出进一步开发山西农村消费市场的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Investment, consumption and export trade are the "troika" that drives a country's economic growth. However, in terms of their contribution to economic growth, the three are not balanced. The sustained economic growth in Shanxi and even in China is mainly driven by investment. Compared with that, consumption is relatively weak, especially in rural areas. How to open up the rural consumer market has become an important problem we need to face. Shanxi is located in the central part of our country and is a big coal province. Domestic demand is seriously insufficient, especially the consumption demand of rural residents. As of end of 2011, The rural population of Shanxi has reached twenty-three million three hundred and forty-seven thousand and nine hundred people, accounting for 64.98% of the province's total population, but the consumption of rural residents only accounts for 30% of the province's consumption. It can be seen that the consumption of rural residents in Shanxi Province is weak, and the rural consumption market has great potential. The study on how to further develop the rural consumption market in Shanxi can effectively stimulate the development of regional economy and promote the transformation of economic growth mode. In this paper, the background, purpose and significance of the research, the current research situation at home and abroad, the research contents and methods are briefly described. Secondly, the related concepts of rural consumer market are systematically expounded. Based on the analysis of the current situation of rural production and consumption market in Shanxi Province, it is found that the development of rural consumption market in Shanxi Province is weak. Rural residents' consumption is insufficient. Based on the qualitative analysis of the factors affecting the development of rural consumption market in Shanxi, the theory and method of system dynamics are used. The system dynamics model of Shanxi rural consumption market is constructed by using Vensim DSS software. Through system simulation and policy simulation, we can see that both production and consumption, as well as living consumption, can be seen. The consumption level of the residents will be affected by the income level, circulation level, financial credit, etc. Financial support for agriculture spending, social security construction, etc. Finally, according to the results of policy simulation, the author puts forward some policy suggestions for further development of rural consumer market in Shanxi Province.
【学位授予单位】：中北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F126.1;F224

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