中国产业结构变化探究——对第三产业增加值首超第二产业的理论分析

发布时间：2018-02-28 12:20

本文关键词： 产业结构市场扭曲国企过度膨胀资源配置供给学派第三产业增加值　出处：《理论探讨》2014年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：国家统计局2014年初公布的统计数据显示,2013年第三产业增加值首次超过第二产业,我国经济结构出现了历史性的变化。在中国经济增长趋缓之际,以耶鲁大学教员斯蒂芬·罗奇为代表的许多人士将中国二、三产业增加值和增长率的变化看作中国产业结构已经逆转并合理化的信号,我们对此种观点要冷静客观分析,以免被"捧杀"。通过深入探究发现,我国第三产业增长速度相对于第二产业加快的原因也含有制造业低迷、失业增加等负面因素。只有尽快终结积极的财政政策,采用供给学派的减税、紧缩政府开支,严控货币发行,放松管制的市场化政策和积极的产业政策,在激活私营企业活力、创造动态的比较优势基础上升级产业结构,才能实现我国经济的平稳发展。
[Abstract]:Statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics on early 2014 show that in 2013, the added value of the tertiary industry exceeded that of the secondary industry for the first time, resulting in historic changes in China's economic structure. Many people, represented by Yale faculty member Stephen Roach, see the change in the value added and growth rate of China's secondary and tertiary industries as a sign that China's industrial structure has been reversed and rationalized. To avoid being "hunted down". Through in-depth investigation, it was found that the reasons for the acceleration of the growth rate of China's tertiary industry compared with the secondary industry also included negative factors such as the low manufacturing industry, the increase in unemployment, and other negative factors. Only by ending the positive fiscal policy as soon as possible, Adopting supply-side tax cuts, tightening government expenditure, strictly controlling currency issuance, deregulating market-oriented policies and active industrial policies, upgrading the industrial structure on the basis of activating the vitality of private enterprises and creating dynamic comparative advantages. Only then can we realize the steady development of our economy.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院工业经济研究所;湘南学院经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重点项目“技术创新视角下的我国能源产业成长战略研究”(11AJL007)、国家社科基金项目“后发地区企业技术创新能力发展路径研究”(12BGL018)阶段性成果
【分类号】：F121.3

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