中国中部六省金融发展与经济增长关系的差异性研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 10:33

本文关键词： 中部六省金融发展经济增长因果关系区域差异　出处：《江西财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：金融问题是现代经济研究的核心问题之一。近一百年的研究成果表明，金融发展与经济增长存在密不可分的联系。2004年12月中央经济工作会议确立“中部崛起”这一国家战略。同时，中部崛起六省金融论坛抛出“中部崛起，金融先行”的口号。但是，学者对金融发展与经济增长的因果方向结论并没有达成统一。中部六省如何通过发展金融来促进经济增长，是一个值得研究的问题。本文以中部六省（安徽省、江西省、河南省、山西省、湖南省和湖北省）为研究对象，研究中部六省金融发展与经济增长关系的区域差异。其理论意义在于，通过研究中部六省这一特定区域的金融发展与经济增长的关系，可以进一步丰富人们对金融发展与经济增长关系的认识，在一定程度上弥补我国区域金融发展与区域经济增长差异研究的不足。其实践意义在于，中部六省在中国区域发展总体战略中起着“承东启西、贯南通北”的作用，是维系全面可协调持续发展的重要枢纽，研究其金融发展与经济增长关系，有利于政府从实际出发，有针对性地制定经济政策和金融政策，以促进中部地区的经济发展和金融发展。本文在全面阐述金融发展与经济增长相互作用机制、总结已有的研究方法的基础上，从金融深化程度、金融资产规模和金融效率三个角度考察金融发展水平，以人均GDP增长速度衡量经济增长水平。在实证分析环节，运用平稳性检验，协整检验和格兰杰因果检验对中部六省金融发展指标与经济增长指标分别进行分析。检验的结果是，山西省金融发展与经济增长存在高度正相关关系，但是各指标之间均无格兰杰因果关系。除山西省外，其他五省经济增长是金融深化程度的格兰杰原因。河南省仅金融深化程度与经济增长存在单向因果关系。安徽省与江西省金融资产规模扩大是经济增长的格兰杰原因，其金融效率是经济增长的格兰杰原因。湖南省与湖北省经济增长是金融资产规模扩大的格兰杰原因，其金融效率是经济增长的格兰杰原因。根据以上结果将中部六省分为安徽省、湖南省、河南省和江西省、湖北省、山西省两组，并进行差异性分析。结论是，山西省“金融过度深化”，金融发展脱离实体经济高速发展；河南省金融深化程度不够，庞大的金融资产总量可以更好地利用；安徽省金融深化速度快，要合理发展，谨防过度深化；江西省经济总量水平与人均水平较低，可以通过扩大金融资产规模来促进经济增长；湖南省与湖北省经济发展水平领先，，但从金融发展与经济增长的因果方向出发，应将重点由扩大资产规模转向建立良性的金融与经济互相作用机制上。
[Abstract]:Financial problems are one of the core problems in modern economic research. Financial development and economic growth are inextricably linked. In December 2004, the Central Economic work Conference established the national strategy of "the rise of the central region." at the same time, the financial forum of the six provinces on the rise of the central region threw out "the rise of the central region," However, scholars have not reached a unified conclusion on the causal direction between financial development and economic growth. How to promote economic growth through the development of finance in the six central provinces? This paper focuses on six central provinces (Anhui Province, Jiangxi Province, Henan Province, Shanxi Province, Hunan Province and Hubei Province). This paper studies the regional differences in the relationship between financial development and economic growth in six central provinces. Its theoretical significance lies in the study of the relationship between financial development and economic growth in the six central provinces. It can further enrich people's understanding of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, and to some extent make up for the deficiency of the research on the difference between regional financial development and regional economic growth. In the overall strategy of regional development in China, the six central provinces play the role of "connecting the east with the west, running from the south to the north", which is an important hub to maintain the overall coordinated and sustainable development. The study of the relationship between its financial development and economic growth is conducive to the government proceeding from the reality. To formulate economic and financial policies in order to promote economic and financial development in the central region. On the basis of comprehensively explaining the interaction mechanism between financial development and economic growth and summarizing the existing research methods, this paper examines the level of financial development from three angles: the degree of financial deepening, the scale of financial assets and the financial efficiency. GDP per capita growth rate measured by the level of economic growth. In the link of empirical analysis, using the stability test, cointegration test and Granger causality test to analyze the financial development index and economic growth index of the six central provinces, respectively. The results of the test are as follows:. There is a highly positive correlation between financial development and economic growth in Shanxi Province, but there is no Granger causality among the indicators. The economic growth of the other five provinces is the Granger cause of financial deepening. There is only a one-way causal relationship between financial deepening and economic growth in Henan Province. The expansion of financial assets in Anhui Province and Jiangxi Province is the Granger cause of economic growth. Its financial efficiency is the Granger cause of economic growth, the economic growth of Hunan Province and Hubei Province is the Granger cause of the expansion of financial assets, and its financial efficiency is the Granger reason of economic growth. According to the above results, the six central provinces are divided into Anhui Province, Hunan Province, Henan Province and Jiangxi Province, Hubei Province, Shanxi Province, and the differences are analyzed. Shanxi Province's "excessive financial deepening", the financial development separated from the rapid development of the real economy; Henan Province's financial deepening degree is not enough, the huge amount of financial assets can be better utilized; Anhui Province's financial deepening speed is fast, and it should be developed reasonably. Beware of excessive deepening; the low level of economic aggregate and per capita in Jiangxi Province can promote economic growth by expanding the scale of financial assets; Hunan Province and Hubei Province have a leading level of economic development. However, from the causal direction of financial development and economic growth, the emphasis should be shifted from expanding the scale of assets to establishing a benign mechanism of interaction between finance and economy.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F832.7;F224

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