CAFTA建设对缓解中国外部经济失衡的效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-03 11:08

本文选题：外部经济失衡　切入点：自由贸易区战略　出处：《西南财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：从国际经济学的视角出发,当一国处在开放经济的环境中时,不仅要努力实现其内部均衡的目标,即通常所说的经济增长、充分就业和物价稳定等,还要努力使其外部经济在长期基本保持平衡。在国际资本大规模流动的情况下,一国经济的外部平衡一般表现为经常项目与资本项目之间的弥补和匹配,从动态角度看,这种弥补和匹配必须是科学的,而且应当是适度的。纵观我国改革开放以来的经济发展形势,20世纪90年代后,我国国际收支开始出现持续的“双顺差”,这种趋势在2000年以后表现的更为明显,我国经常账户顺差与资本账户顺差显现出长期并存的局面,且伴有严重持续性和显著规模性的特征。因此,可以说我国的外部经济出现了严重的失衡问题。如何解决上述外部经济失衡问题是当前中国经济的重点和难点,也是本文研究的重点,而以CAFTA为代表的自由贸易区建设从理论和实践上为我们提供了一条重要的途径。从地缘经济出发,东盟作为中国的重要邻邦,通过利用各自的禀赋优势,其经济发展与中国的互补和趋同效应日益显现。自2002年自贸区正式启动至今,双方签署了多项保护贸易和投资的框架协议,尤其是自2010年自贸区正式成立以来,双方在加强区域合作、化解外部压力和抵御外部冲击等方面的合作不断加强。通过区内的各项保护措施,中国可以取得比与单一国家合作更大的收益,并通过实施战略性贸易逆差甚至主权货币合作等措施在很大程度上实现中国外部经济的再平衡。以上述内容为引导,本文主要包含以下方面的内容：首先,主要以中国在改革开放过程中经济发展模式的转变为切入点,提出文章研究的主要问题,即中国外部经济失衡。接下来,主要针对本文重点研究的“外部经济失衡”和“自由贸易区战略”加以概念的界定,并突出强调两者在中国经济发展模式中的具体定位。其中,“外部经济失衡”主要被定义为中国持续的、不可自行修复的“双顺差”,“自由贸易区战略”则被定义为利用自由贸易区的发展在区内解决中国外部经济失衡的国家战略。其次,对相关理论和文献综述进行了系统性阐述,主要包括对全球经济失衡理论和自由贸易区理论的阐述和借鉴,并以此为基础,对学者已有的相关文献进行梳理,总结学者研究的成果和不足。具体来说,全球经济失衡理论主要包括对失衡成因和解决路径的研究,自由贸易区理论主要包括对贸易区产生及其对贸易、投资的效应的研究。第三,对中国外部经济失衡的形成进行了较为系统的分析,在回顾中国改革开放以来“外向型”经济发展轨迹的基础上,具体分析了中国外部经济失衡形成的理论依据和历史脉络,并对外部经济失衡的统计指标加以解释,分别从经常项目失衡和金融项目失衡两个角度对我国外部经济失衡做了指标性统计分析。第四,对CAFTA建设为中国带来的经济效应进行了分析,在总结CAFTA发展历史的基础上,分别从贸易效应和投资效应角度分析了CAFTA对中国贸易逆差和扩大投资的潜在收益,并运用实证分析中国在CAFTA框架下实施战略性贸易逆差和扩大投资的可行性和有效性。第五,为推动CAFTA的进一步发展并解决中国外部经济失衡问题提供了相关建议。具体而言,本部分主要针对前面的分析,从贸易和投资等方面提出推动CAFTA发展的对策,并结合美国与东盟的合作经验以及人民币区域化的实践,提出有关促进CAFTA发展的相关建议。最后,将对研究的内容进行系统性总结,指出CAFTA未来的战略方向,并对文章的不足之处进行整理。
[Abstract]:Starting from the angle of international economics, when a country is in the open economy environment, should not only strive to achieve the goal of internal equilibrium, namely economic growth, full employment and price stability, but also to the external economy in the long-term basic balance. In the large-scale flow of international capital, the external balance of the economy of a country is generally between the current account and capital account, and make up, from the dynamic point of view, this kind of remedy and matching must be scientific, and should be moderate. Since the China's reform and opening up economic development situation, in 1990s, China's international balance of payments began to appear continuous "double surplus", this trend is more obvious after 2000, China's current account surplus and capital account surplus showing long-term coexistence, and severe and persistent. Therefore, it can be said that the external economy of our country has a serious problem of imbalance.
How to solve the problem of external imbalance is the key and difficult Chinese economy, but also the focus of this paper, and the construction of free trade zones represented by CAFTA from theory and practice provides us an important way. From the perspective of geo economic, ASEAN as an important neighbor of Chinese, through the use of their endowments complementary advantage, and the convergence of economic development and China increasingly apparent. Since 2002 the official launch of the FTA, the two sides signed a framework agreement on protection of trade and investment, especially since the establishment of the FTA formally since 2010, the two sides in the strengthening of regional cooperation to resolve external pressure and external shocks on through cooperation has been strengthened. The protection measures in the region, China can achieve more in cooperation with the single national income, and through the implementation of the strategic trade deficit and sovereign Measures such as monetary cooperation to a large extent achieve the rebalance of the Chinese external economy.
Guided by the above content, the main contents of this paper are as follows:
First of all, the main change to China in process of reform and opening up economic development mode as the breakthrough point, put forward the main questions, namely Chinese external imbalance. Next, mainly focused on the definition of "external imbalances" and "free trade zone" strategy to the concept, and to highlight the specific location of them in China economic development model. Among them, the "external imbalance" is defined as China continuously, can not repair the "double surplus", "strategic" free trade area is defined as the development of the free trade area of the national strategy to solve Chinese external economic imbalances in the region.
Secondly, the relevant theory and literature review were discussed, including the global economic imbalance theory and free trade area theory and reference, and on the basis of relevant literature on scholars to sort out the summary of research achievements and shortcomings. Specifically, the theory of global economic imbalances and to include to solve the path of imbalance causes the theory of free trade zone including the trade area and its effect on trade, investment research.
Third, on the formation of China external economic imbalances were systematically analyzed, in the review of Chinese since the reform and opening up export-oriented economic development path on the basis of detailed analysis of the theoretical basis and historical context of the formation of Chinese external economic imbalances, and statistical indicators of external economic imbalances will be explained, respectively, from the current account imbalances and the financial account imbalances in two aspects of the external economic imbalances do index analysis.
Fourth, the economic effects of the construction of CAFTA for Chinese brings is analyzed, based on summarizing the development history of the CAFTA, separately from the trade and investment effects analysis of CAFTA on the trade deficit Chinese and expanding investment potential benefits, and the use of empirical analysis China feasibility under the CAFTA framework to implement strategic trade deficit and expand investment and effective.
Fifth, to further promote the development of CAFTA and provides some suggestions to solve Chinese external imbalance problem. Specifically, this part mainly according to the analysis, put forward the countermeasures to promote the development of CAFTA from trade and investment, and combined with the United States and ASEAN cooperation experience and practice of RMB regionalization, put forward relevant suggestions about to promote the development of CAFTA.
Finally, we will systematically summarize the content of the research, point out the strategic direction of CAFTA in the future, and organize the shortcomings of the article.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124

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