中国对发达国家直接投资的进出口效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-13 20:18

本文选题：对外直接投资　切入点：贸易效应　出处：《上海交通大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：“走出去”战略实施的十余年来,中国继成为世界贸易大国之后,又成为了资本输出大国。虽然中国目前的对外直接投资存量中,发达国家所占的比例还较小,但根据商务部最新数据,2012年1月至7月中国对欧美的投资总额占对外直接投资总额的比例已经超过了50%。中国的进出口则对发达国家依赖度很高,并且存在贸易顺差大以及贸易摩擦多等问题。无论是对外直接投资还是对外贸易,发达国家都是中国最重要的合作伙伴。对外直接投资和对外贸易是进行国际经济往来的两种基本方式,要想更好地融入世界经济、与发达国家的经济合作有长足的发展,就需要研究分析这两种方式之间的关系,做到相互促进,有利于更好地开展国际经济往来。在对直接投资的贸易效应的研究中,以中国这样的发展中大国向发达国家的逆投资为研究对象的比较少。已有的对外直接投资贸易效应的研究侧重于研究发达国家对发展中国家的直接投资,主要的结论有替代效应、互补效应以及综合效应等。本文以中国对发达国家的直接投资为对象,选取了美国、加拿大、澳大利亚等20个国家作为发达国家样本,利用2003-2010年我国对该20个国家的投资和贸易数据,借助引力模型与广义最小二乘法模型,分别从出口和进口研究了中国对发达国家直接投资的贸易效应。并进一步缩小视角,研究分析了主要制造业中,中国对发达国家直接投资的贸易效应。研究结果表明,无论从整体的进出口贸易来看还是从制造业的进出口贸易来看,我国向发达国家直接投资对我国与该类国家的进口和出口都具有创造效应,对外直接投资和对外贸易之间都具有显著的相关性。主要制造业领域的直接投资贸易效应小于整体直接投资的贸易效应,直接投资对进口的促进作用大于对出口的促进作用。对发达国家投资的该种贸易效应,开辟了缓解贸易失衡的新途径。我国可利用对外直接投资对进口和出口的不对等创造性,通过扩大对发达国家的对外直接投资,更加有力地促进我国的进口,从而缓和我国与发达国家之间的贸易失衡现状。发展对外直接投资是中国发展对外经济的一个重要任务,“十二五规划”也指出,要加快企业“走出去”的步伐,完善跨部门协调机制。因此中国应该迎接对外直接投资所面临的机遇与挑战,进一步扩大发展对外直接投资,特别是要使对发达国家的直接投资可持续、健康发展。
[Abstract]:In the more than 10 years since the implementation of the "going out" strategy, China has become a major trading country in the world and a large capital exporter. Although the proportion of China's current stock of foreign direct investment is still relatively small, the developed countries still account for a relatively small proportion. However, according to the latest figures from the Ministry of Commerce, from January 2012 to July, China's total investment in Europe and the United States has exceeded 50 percent of the total amount of foreign direct investment. China's imports and exports are highly dependent on developed countries. And there are many problems such as large trade surplus and many trade frictions. Whether it is foreign direct investment or foreign trade, Both developed countries are China's most important partners. Foreign direct investment and foreign trade are the two basic ways of conducting international economic exchanges. To better integrate into the world economy, economic cooperation with developed countries has developed rapidly. There is a need to study and analyse the relationship between the two approaches in order to promote each other and facilitate better international economic interaction. In the study of the trade effects of direct investment, The research on the adverse investment from large developing countries to developed countries is less. The existing studies on the effects of foreign direct investment have focused on the study of direct investment from developed countries to developing countries. The main conclusions are substitution effect, complementary effect and comprehensive effect. This paper takes China's direct investment in developed countries as the object, including the United States, Canada, Australia and other 20 countries as the sample of developed countries. Using the data of China's investment and trade in these 20 countries from 2003 to 2010, with the help of gravity model and generalized least square model, this paper studies the trade effects of China's direct investment in developed countries from export and import, and further narrows the perspective. This paper analyzes the trade effects of China's direct investment in developed countries in the main manufacturing industries. The results show that, in terms of the overall import and export trade as well as the import and export trade of the manufacturing industry, China's direct investment in developed countries has a creative effect on its imports and exports as well as on those countries. There is a significant correlation between foreign direct investment and foreign trade. The trade effect of direct investment in major manufacturing sectors is smaller than that of overall direct investment. The effect of direct investment on imports is greater than that on exports. The trade effect of investment in developed countries has opened up a new way to alleviate the trade imbalance. China can take advantage of the inequity of foreign direct investment in imports and exports. Through the expansion of foreign direct investment to developed countries, we will be able to promote China's imports more effectively. In order to ease the trade imbalance between China and the developed countries, the development of foreign direct investment is an important task for China to develop its foreign economy. The 12th Five-Year Plan also points out that it is necessary to speed up the pace of enterprises'"going out". Therefore, China should meet the opportunities and challenges faced by foreign direct investment and further expand the development of foreign direct investment, especially to make direct investment in developed countries sustainable and healthy.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.6;F125

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