辽宁省税种结构变动对经济增长效应的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-17 04:25

本文选题：税制结构　切入点：税种结构　出处：《辽宁大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：财税制度改革是中国经济在“十二·五”规划中的重要内容之一，，而能否顺利实现结构调整，将成为关键。规划指出，大规模实行结构性减税政策，以促进经济持续快速发展。关于税收与经济增长的实证研究，经济学家大多立足于宏观经济数据，而目前部分经济学家开始侧重从地方入手研究中微观数据。本文尝试从地方入手，以老工业基地省份辽宁省为例，运用前沿的计量方法研究增值税比重、营业税比重、消费税比重、企业所得税比重、个人所得税比重等地方性税制结构变动对经济增长效应，具体分析以下几个问题：（1）从直观上看，税种结构变动与经济增长之间呈现出怎样的增长趋势，是正向调整还是反向调整？（2）从模型结构上看，围绕关系验证和贡献率差异验证两个思路，研究税种结构变动对经济增长效应是否存在长期稳定关系？税种结构变动是否有利于辽宁省经济的可持续发展？税种结构变动对经济增长效应存在怎样的脉冲响应关系，以及对经济增长的贡献率有多大的差异性？在关于辽宁省数据实证研究所要解决的问题的基础之上，提出相应的对策和建议。论文分为五个部分，除绪论部分之外，第二部分是论文展开研究的理论基础。第三部分是税种结构对经济增长效应的现状研究，第四部分是税种结构对经济增长效应的实证研究，第五部分是论文结论以及政策建议。绪论部分，主要介绍了研究问题的背景，论文的研究现状（国内、外文献综述），研究动机与内容，研究方法以及可能的创新点和不足之处。第二部分，税种结构的界定与税种分类，税种结构的变动内涵与分类，及其对经济增长的效应机制与传导路径。先对税种结构、税种结构的变动作了明确的解释，依据成因和幅度对税种结构的变动作了分类，然后讨论了税种结构对经济增长效应是通过哪些要素来完成的，这些要素又是通过怎样的内在传导机制与途径来实现的，这样为论文的模型部分奠定了理论基础。第三部分，辽宁省税种结构对经济增长效应的描述性分析。先从总量的角度，运用比较分析方法，直观描述一下辽宁省税收总量与经济总量之间的横向与纵向关系以及辽宁省税负①与全国税负的关系；然后从结构角度，再次运用比较分析方法描述辽宁省各个税种所占该省总税收比重与该省经济增长率之间的关系，以发现二者之间的规律。而这一章也与税种结构变动的分类相对应。第四部分，辽宁省税种结构变动对经济增长影响的实证分析。主要从两个方面的目的进行考察：一是验证辽宁省税种结构的变动对经济增长影响的存在性，针对这个目的，主要运用经典回归模型、因果关系模型进行检验；二是考察辽宁省税种结构的变动对经济增长贡献程度不同，验证它们之间的内在差异。针对这个目的，采用了向量自回归（VAR）模型、脉冲响应分析及其方差分解等计量方法。第五部分，结论及其政策建议。在第四章实证分析的基础上，对辽宁省税种结构的变动对经济增长的影响产生的结论进行全面的概括，并针对其中的问题，提出了相应的政策性建议。
[Abstract]:The reform of fiscal and taxation system is one of the important contents of China's economy in the "twelve. Five" plan. Whether or not we can successfully achieve structural adjustment will become the key.
As for the empirical research on tax and economic growth, most economists are based on macro economic data, and now some economists begin to focus on microeconomic data.
This paper attempts to start with the old industrial base in Liaoning Province as an example, application of advanced econometric method of VAT proportion, the proportion of sales tax, consumption tax proportion, the proportion of corporate income tax, personal income tax proportion of local tax structure change to economic growth effect, analyzes the following questions: (1) from intuitively, between tax structure and economic growth showed a growth trend of how the positive adjustment or reverse adjustment? (2) from the model structure, focus on verification two ideas differences between verification and the contribution rate of economic growth effect, whether there is a long-term stable relationship between the change of tax structure and tax structure change is? Is conducive to sustainable economic development in Liaoning province? What kind of relationship exists impulse response to economic growth effects of the changes in the tax structure, and the contribution rate of economic growth have much difference On the basis of the problems to be solved in the empirical research of Liaoning province data, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
This paper is divided into five parts, in addition to the introduction, the second part is the theoretical basis of this thesis. The third part is the present situation of tax structure on economic growth effect, the fourth part is the empirical research on economic growth effects of the tax structure, the fifth part is the conclusion and policy recommendations.
The introduction part mainly introduces the background of the research, the current research situation of the paper (domestic and foreign literature review), research motivation and content, research methods and possible innovations and shortcomings.
The second part, the definition and classification of taxes tax structure, and classification of changes in tax structure and its connotation, the effect mechanism and conduction path of economic growth. The tax structure, the change of tax structure clearly explained, according to the classification change causes and extent of tax structure, the tax structure is then discussed accomplished by what factors on the economic growth effect of these factors is realized through the inherent conduction mechanism and the way how, such as the model lays a theoretical foundation.
The third part, descriptive analysis of Liaoning province tax structure on economic growth effect. First, from the total point of view, using the method of comparative analysis, describe the relationship between horizontal and vertical directly between tax revenue and economic output in Liaoning province and Liaoning province and the relationship between national tax burden; and then from the structural perspective, again using the method of comparative analysis description Liaoning Province, the various types of taxes accounted for the province's total tax proportion and the relationship between the economic growth rate, in order to find the relationship between the two laws. And this chapter also with the classification of taxes structure change correspondingly.
The fourth part, the empirical analysis on the impact of economic growth in Liaoning province tax structure. The thesis mainly studies from two aspects: one is to verify the tax structure in Liaoning Province in existence on the impact of economic growth, for this purpose, the main use of the classical regression model, causality test model; two is to investigate tax structure Liaoning Province, the changes of the degree of contribution to economic growth, verify the inherent differences between them. For this purpose, using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition measurement method.
The fifth part is the conclusion and policy recommendations. On the basis of the fourth chapter empirical analysis, the conclusion of the impact of the change of tax structure in Liaoning Province on economic growth is summarized, and corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.

【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F812.42;F127

【参考文献】