陕西

发布时间：2018-03-17 09:47

本文选题：工业化　切入点：城镇化　出处：《西北农林科技大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：针对农业现代化严重滞后于工业化和城镇化的现实，党的十七届五中全会提出：“在工业化、城镇化深入发展中同步推进农业现代化。”同步推进“三化”是现代化发展的客观规律，是我国经济社会发展到新阶段的必然要求，是克服中等收入陷阱的必然选择，也是全面建设小康社会的重大而紧迫的任务。随着国家西部大开发战略的实施，特别是关中-天水经济区的确立，陕西在国家区域经济发展中的战略位置愈加重要。近年来，尽管陕西省经济社会取得显著发展，但是经济发展中不平衡、不协调、不可持续的矛盾仍然比较突出，工业化、城镇化、农业现代化发展水平在区域间不均衡。由于“三化”之间相互影响、相辅相成，任何一方面的“短腿”都会影响经济社会发展的大局。因此，通过理论分析和实证研究，揭示陕西省“三化”协同发展现状、存在问题，探寻其实现路径，对确保陕西省经济社会健康持续发展，具有重大意义。本文在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上，运用Johansen协整理论及误差修正模型实证分析了陕西省年1991至2010年工业化、城镇化与农业现代化之间的长短期关系。而后将工业化、城镇化和农业现代化视为“三化”系统中的三个子系统，运用DEA方法计算三个系统之间的两两关系以及三者间的协调度与发展度。根据协调发展度计算结果及其分级评价标准，结合各地市（区）经济社会发展实际情况，分别对各地市（区）的协调发展情况进行评价和分析。最后，论文在借鉴发达国家“三化”协同发展经验的基础上，从省域层面和区域层面探寻陕西实现“三化”协同发展的路径。研究的主要结论有：第一，1991年到2010年，陕西省工业化、城镇化和农业现代化之间存在长期协整关系且呈同向发展趋势，在短期内工业化水平和农业现代化水平的提升对城镇化水平的提升具有阻滞效应。脉冲响应分析表明：工业化和农业现代化对城镇化的正向冲击较小且不能持续；方差分析结果表明：相对而言，，工业化对城镇化发展的贡献率较大，比农业现代化更能推动城镇化水平的提高。第二，2011年陕西省“三化”协同发展度的平均值为0.782，处于中级协调发展水平，但区域发展的差异较大，发展不均衡。陕西省工业化和城镇化处于濒临失调阶段，工业化与农业现代化处于轻度失调阶段，城镇化与农业现代化处于勉强协调阶段。第三，从省域层面来说，应通过适时调整和优化产业结构，坚持走新型工业化道路，完善城镇体系，强化现代化农业发展规划与政策，促进陕西“三化”协同发展。就不同发展类型区域而言，重在提升“短板”，发挥比较优势，找到符合区域的发展路径。
[Abstract]:In view of the fact that agricultural modernization seriously lags behind industrialization and urbanization, the Fifth Plenary session of the 17 CPC Central Committee put forward the following: "in industrialization, It is the objective law of modernization development, the inevitable requirement of our country's economic and social development to the new stage, and the inevitable choice to overcome the middle income trap. It is also an important and urgent task for building a well-off society in an all-round way. With the implementation of the national strategy of developing the western region, especially the establishment of the Guanzhong Tianshui Economic Zone, Shaanxi's strategic position in the development of the national regional economy has become increasingly important. In spite of the remarkable economic and social development in Shaanxi Province, the imbalance, uncoordinated, and unsustainable contradictions in economic development are still quite prominent. Industrialization, urbanization, The level of agricultural modernization development is not balanced among regions. Because the "three modernizations" affect each other and complement each other, the "short legs" of any aspect will affect the overall situation of economic and social development. Therefore, through theoretical analysis and empirical research, It is of great significance to reveal the present situation and existing problems of the "three modernizations" in Shaanxi Province, and to explore the way to realize them, which is of great significance to ensure the healthy and sustainable development of the economy and society in Shaanxi Province. Based on the domestic and foreign research results, this paper empirically analyzes the long-term and short-term relationship between industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in Shaanxi Province from 1991 to 2010 by using the Johansen co-arrangement and error correction model to analyze the relationship between industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization. Urbanization and agricultural modernization are regarded as three subsystems in the "three modernizations" system. The DEA method is used to calculate the relationship between the three systems and the degree of coordination and development among the three systems. Combined with the actual situation of the economic and social development of each prefecture (district), the paper evaluates and analyzes the coordinated development of each prefecture (district). Finally, the paper draws lessons from the experience of the coordinated development of the "three modernizations" in developed countries. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) to explore the path to realize the "three modernizations" coordinated development in Shaanxi from the provincial and regional levels. First, from 1991 to 2010, there was a long-term cointegration relationship between industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in Shaanxi Province. In the short term, the improvement of industrialization level and agricultural modernization level has a blocking effect on the improvement of urbanization level. The impulse response analysis shows that the positive impact of industrialization and agricultural modernization on urbanization is small and unsustainable. The results of variance analysis show that the contribution of industrialization to the development of urbanization is relatively large, which can promote the improvement of urbanization level more than agricultural modernization. Second, in 2011, the average degree of "three modernizations" coordinated development in Shaanxi Province is 0.782, which is in the intermediate level of coordinated development, but the regional development is quite different and the development is not balanced. The industrialization and urbanization of Shaanxi Province are on the verge of maladjustment. Industrialization and agricultural modernization are in a slight imbalance stage, urbanization and agricultural modernization are barely coordinated. Third, at the provincial level, we should, through timely adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure, adhere to the new road of industrialization, perfect the urban system, and strengthen the planning and policies for the development of modern agriculture. In terms of different development types, it is important to promote the "short board", give play to the comparative advantage, and find the development path that accords with the region.
【学位授予单位】：西北农林科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127

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