产业结构演进中的经济增长和就业——基于中国2000-2013年经验的分析

发布时间：2018-03-19 13:32

本文选题：产业结构　切入点：经济增长　出处：《学术月刊》2014年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：从2013年起,中国的产业结构已经开始呈现第三产业增加值占比最大、第二产业次之、第一产业最小的现代经济特征。这是中国在高速经济增长中产业结构不断演进和提升的结果,并对新时期经济增长和就业产生一系列深远的影响。与此同时,中国的劳动力供给由于人口政策等方面的原因,增长率已经开始递减。在全面建成小康社会的进程中,应该根据中国的经济发展水平、产业结构特征及劳动力供给来科学地确定经济增长和就业目标。通过中长期分析、国际比较和供需研究,可得出的结论是:在2020年以前,从满足充分就业与改善中国现阶段的各种矛盾的要求看,把中国经济的年均增长率保持在6%-7%之间是适宜的。分产业看,第一、二、三产业的增长率分别为4%-5%之间、7%-8%之间和8%-9%之间。在三大产业的就业中,第一产业就业将逐渐减少,2020年前后将减少到2亿人左右,占中国就业总人数(7.7亿左右)的25%左右;第二产业的就业仍然将保持增长,但每年的增长量是递减的,2020年前后在占比达到33%即三分之一左右时,将不再增长,以后还有可能出现递减;而第三产业则会保持稳定的增长,2020年将达到40%以上。
[Abstract]:Since 2013, China's industrial structure has begun to present the largest proportion of added value in the tertiary industry, followed by the secondary industry. The smallest modern economic characteristics of the primary industry. This is the result of the continuous evolution and upgrading of China's industrial structure in the course of rapid economic growth, and a series of far-reaching effects on economic growth and employment in the new era. At the same time, Due to the population policy and other reasons, the growth rate of China's labor supply has begun to decline. In the process of building a well-off society in an all-round way, we should take into account the level of China's economic development. The characteristics of industrial structure and labor supply are used to determine the economic growth and employment target scientifically. Through the medium and long term analysis, international comparison and supply and demand research, the conclusion can be drawn: before 2020, From the point of view of satisfying the demands of full employment and improving all kinds of contradictions in China at the present stage, it is appropriate to keep the average annual growth rate of China's economy between 6% and 7%. See from the point of view of industry, first, second, The growth rate of the third industry is between 4- 5% and 8- 9%, respectively. In the employment of the three major industries, the employment of the primary industry will gradually decrease to about 200 million people around 2020, accounting for about 25% of the total number of employed people (about 770 million) in China; The employment of the secondary industry will continue to increase, but the annual growth is decreasing. When the proportion reaches 33% or 1/3 or so in 2020, it will no longer increase, and there will be a decline in the future; And the tertiary industry will maintain stable growth, 2020 will reach more than 40%.
【作者单位】：北京大学;北京大学中国国民经济核算与经济增长中心;
【分类号】：F124;F249.21

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