中国金融体系存差问题实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 00:00

本文选题：货币总量　切入点：存差　出处：《中国社会科学院研究生院》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近来我国理论界一直强调中国崛起的道路自信理论自信制度自信宣示自信，往往更需要忧患意识与批判性思考反思我国过去20年的经济，一直存在着总供给过剩的问题政府为解决内需不足，持续培育消费热点扩大基建投资强化转移支付维持币值稳定与此同时，我国20年来金融体系产生的存差淤积以及M2过高，引起了学术界关于货币是否超发的热议笔者认为，这是由于我国实体经济与金融深化之间要素错配经济社会转轨阵痛造成的；在我国长期以来形成流动性劳动力产品产能四大过剩，实体经济总供给过剩与金融体系存差淤积之间相互交错，构成了我国经济第三类非均衡的核心特征；在今后很长时间内，总供给过剩与金融过剩，将会是一直阻碍我国经济增长的主要矛盾我国金融体系中的货币总量增长与存差淤积，是一个隐藏很深的体制问题它既体现我国货币被动超发，又反映商业银行的表外逐利本文补足我国M2的统计缺失，发现我国在2012年底的货币总量已超过100万亿元其中92万亿元是存款笼中虎，92万亿元中有73万亿元是较为优良的银行信贷与债券资产；其中另外的27万亿元是整体存差，它相当于我国历史累积的货币发行量——该27万亿元中尚有18万亿元净存差，构成我国的超发货币货币超发情形下，我国实体经济的供需失衡与金融体系的存差淤积，是当前我国生产要素错配和分配机制矛盾尖锐化的外在表现本文分析我国六十三年来整体存差演进的过程，实证货币超发的问题，，探索我国金融体系与实体经济之间要素错配的改进机制笔者研究发现：第一，我国增量要素的投放追不上整体存差的扩大要素配置衔接不上资金可贷性需求实体经济与金融深化之间缺乏有机配合，都是阻碍我国投资转化与资本形成的主要障碍；第二，存差过大，危害甚剧这意味着金融体系内的货币超发存贷失衡金融媒介力渐弱系统脆弱性加大，同时持续加剧我国实体经济的主要矛盾，加重全社会对货币超发与分配不公的紧张和忧虑；第三，解决实体经济矛盾，必须抓住金融枢纽；化解我国存差淤积，亟需改进增量要素投放与存差淤积之间的匹配机制我国要做到管控少发多贷增量配齐可贷要素化解当前经济的第三类非均衡，就必须完善我国再生产过程中增量投放人本盈需可贷要素的匹配机制，从而为生产者扫除按要素分配的体制障碍放松市场的末梢垄断推进城市化中产业扩容在民生工程中塑造民生机制由此，更便于生产者找到合意的可贷项目畅通的投资渠道持续的收入预期在未来我国的金融体制改革中，必须重新强化中国特色的财政金融搭配，以使我国存差缓解要素增配尽管整体存差本身易增难减，笔者认为，只要建立要素增配的持续疏导机制，就将改变货币被动超发的状态，我国的净存差就会积极服务实体经济；此时，我国整体存差就会处于合意的范围之内
[Abstract]:Recently, the theory circle of our country has always stressed that the rise of the Chinese road confidence theory confidence confidence in the system that often requires more self-confidence, sense of urgency and critical thinking to reflect China's economy over the past 20 years, there has been a total government supply surplus in order to solve the problem of insufficient domestic demand, continue to cultivate the expansion of consumption of investment in infrastructure to maintain currency stability at the same time strengthen transfer payment the financial system of our country, have 20 years of deposit deposit and high M2, caused the academic circles about whether money is super hot in the author's opinion, this is due to China's real economy and the financial deepening mismatch between elements of economic and social transition pains caused by the long term in China; the formation of labor mobility products the four big surplus capacity, the real economy and the financial system supply excess deposit difference between interlaced deposition constitute China's economy, third kinds of non balanced core For a long time in the future, the total supply surplus and financial surplus will be the main contradiction that has hindered the economic growth of our country.
The amount of money in the financial system of China's growth and deposit deposit, is a hidden deep system it reflects China's monetary statistics over the lack of passive, but also reflects the commercial bank balance sheet profit the complement of China's M2, China in the amount of money at the end of 2012 has over 100 trillion yuan of which 92 trillion yuan deposit caged tiger 92 trillion yuan in 73 trillion yuan is the good bank credit and bond assets; the other is the whole 27 trillion yuan deposit, it is released in the history of our country, the cumulative amount of money 27 trillion yuan is 18 trillion yuan net deposit, a super currency currency over the situation in China, the imbalance between supply and demand of China's financial system and the real economy of the deposit deposit, is the contradiction between production factors and distribution mechanism in China with the wrong sharp appearance based on the analysis of China's sixty-three years of overall survival The process of differential evolution, the problem of the excess of empirical money, and the exploration of the improvement mechanism of the mismatch between the financial system and the real economy in China
The study found: first, China's incremental factors put not overtake overall deposit difference expanded on the link between capital allocation between the loan demand of real economy and financial deepening with a lack of organic, are the main obstacle to investment transformation and capital formation in our country; second, difference is too large, the harm is very drama this means that the financial system in the super currency loan financial imbalance force system to increase the vulnerability to the media, the main contradiction of the continuing development of China's real economy, increase the whole society on the super currency and the distribution of tension and anxiety injustice; third, to solve the real economy contradiction, we must seize the financial hub; resolve our deposit differential sedimentation, the urgent need to improve the incremental delivery and elements deposit difference between our deposit matching mechanism to do less control of multiple loan incremental loan to resolve the current economic factors have third kinds of non equilibrium, we must To improve the matching mechanism in the reproduction process of our country put the surplus to incremental loan elements, so as to remove the institutional barriers according to the distribution of market monopoly industry to promote the relax peripheral expansion of the city of the people's livelihood project in shaping mechanism of the people's livelihood producers, convenient production, find desirable loan project investment channels continued unimpeded expected income
In the future reform of financial system in China, finance must strengthen China characteristics collocation again, to make our difference with ease elements while the overall difference in itself is difficult to reduce, the author believes that as long as the establishment of elements with continuous leading mechanism, will change the currency is issued by the state, net deposit the poor will be the active service of the real economy; at this time, the whole country will be in a reasonable deposit range

【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.2;F832;F124

【引证文献】