东北三省循环经济效率评价及其影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-03-23 18:21

本文选题：东北三省　切入点：循环经济效率　出处：《吉林大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：东北三省由于自身的资源优势和传统发展定位,多年来形成了以重工业和资源型产业为支撑的规模庞大,资金、劳动力密集,高消耗和高污染为主要特点的经济增长格局。如今,东北三省面临经济下滑、产能过剩、资源枯竭和环境污染等问题。为推进东北三省的发展,《全国老工业基地调整改革规划(2013-2022年)》中强调“要积极推进节能减排,提高资源利用效率。大力发展循环经济,大幅度提高资源产出率和资源综合利用效率。”由此可见,循环经济已经成为东北三省实现经济方式转变,建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会的必然选择。依据循环经济的核心思想,利用数据包络分析模型对东北三省的循环经济进行效率评价。以资源高效利用和污染物减排为研究侧重点,在效率评价过程中加入污染物这一非期望产出项,结合数据包络分析各模型特点,最终选用含非期望产出的SBM数据包络分析模型对东北三省内部地级行政区展开循环经济效率评价。在借鉴以往研究成果的同时,遵循数据包络分析指标选择要求,最终确定3项投入指标和3项产出指标。文中利用2009-2013年东北三省35个地级行政区循环经济面板数据,运用含非期望产出的SBM模型进行内部效率评价,结果显示,东北三省各地级行政区循环经济发展状况不佳,循环经济效率平均值仅为0.378。同时,各地级行政区循环经济效率值波动性较大,除常年达到DEA有效的地区,只有通化和锦州等少数地区实现效率值稳定上升趋势,其余各地都出现效率值的反复,发展状况不稳定。结合2013年东北三省循环经济数据,对技术效率进行纯技术效率和规模效率分解,求得评价单元的规模收益,并给出相应非DEA有效单元投入和产出冗余率。结果显示,循环经济效率劣势地区普遍存在循环经济技术水平落后,管理和运营效率低下等问题。此外,能耗和水耗过量已成为现阶段东北三省内部引发效率损失的首要原因。以2013年东北三省循环经济投入和产出指标作为聚类变量,运用系统聚类分析实现东北三省内部区域划分。东北三省循环经济优势地级行政区多为省会城市和沿海发达城市,而循环经济中等和劣势地级行政区则集中表现为重工业城市和资源型城市。在东北三省内部循环经济评价的基础上,通过外部性对比分析进一步探究东北三省循环经济发展在我国所处地位。由于涉及样本单元和决策单元的对比分析工作,最终选择含非期望产出的广义数据包络分析模型和超效率数据包络分析模型予以实现。省级行政区对比中,选取2009-2013年我国30个省级行政区循环经济面板数据,运用含非期望产出的SBM模型和含非期望产出的广义数据包络分析模型实现外部效率对比分析。结果显示,我国循环经济发展形成了由东南沿海省份向西北内陆省份推进的优势到劣势地域分布特点。东北三省现阶段处于我国中等偏下水平,黑龙江、吉林循环经济发展现状较为接近于华东地区、中南地区的优势省份,辽宁省则更为接近于西南地区和西北地区大部分省份。此外,省级行政区对比分析结果显示,除能耗、水耗过量外,东北三省二氧化硫排放过量问题也十分突出。地级行政区对比中,选取2013年我国16个省会城市循环经济数据作为对比样本,运用含非期望产出的超效率数据包络分析模型实现外部性对比分析。结果显示,海口、福州等效率优势省会城市多分布于东南沿海省份,随效率值递减逐渐向中部、西北内陆省会城市延伸,评价结果和省级行政区结果基本相符。东北三省地级行政区中绥化和大庆两地优势突出,循环经济效率水平接近于东南沿海省会城市。而葫芦岛、抚顺、鞍山和本溪由于资源消耗、废弃物排放和资源回用等多方面问题导致评价结果处于全国最低水平。此外,东北三省地级行政区循环经济发展存在明显的两极分化性。东北三省内、外部循环经济效率评价结果表明,外部诸多因素对东北三省循环经济推进存在影响作用。循环经济效率影响因素分析将从效率评价结果入手,选取13项解释变量,以及循环经济效率1项被解释变量。由于循环经济效率为介于0和1之间截断数据,最终选用Tobit回归分析模型用以实现东北三省循环经济效率的影响因素分析。结果显示,人均地区生产总值、科学技术财政支出对循环经济效率呈现显著正相关性,预示着未来一段时间东北三省应积极推行以循环为理念的经济增长方式,推进国民经济的快速发展。同时,增大循环经济领域的科技投入,提升循环经济技术水平以及管理和运营效率,加大对循环经济发展的推动作用。生活垃圾无害化处理率、能源消费量、二氧化硫排放量、工业占地区生产总值比重、非农业人口占比对循环经济效率所呈现显著负相关性,明确了东北三省需在城镇化推进、生态环境改善以及产业结构调整方面做出进一步的优化。在有序推进人口城镇化的同时,加速产业的优化升级和结构性调整,从生产、生活的各个领域重点实现资源的高效循环利用,以及污染物的治理和减排,有效消除外部相关影响因素对循环经济的负向制约性。针对东北三省循环经济发展存在的问题,文中提出了相应的对策建议。目前,东北三省循环经济发展处于我国中等偏下水平,内部存在较为明显的两极分化性。如何提升东北三省循环经济效率,就需要以创新驱动发展为战略,以政府监督管理为保障,通过地区经济改革、经济增长方式转变、城镇化融合等手段,实现过剩产能的化解,产业结构的转变,生产效率的提升,资源高效利用以及环境污染的改善。通过多领域的互融共通,为东北三省循环经济提供有平台、有创新、有保障的良性发展环境。
[Abstract]:Northeast because of its advantages in resources and the traditional development orientation, formed over the years in heavy industries and resource-based industries to support large scale, capital, labor force, the economic growth pattern of high consumption and high pollution as the main characteristics of the three provinces in the northeast of China. Now, facing the economic downturn, overcapacity, resource depletion and environmental pollution other issues. In order to promote the development of Northeast China, the country's old industrial base reform plan (2013-2022 years) "stressed" to actively promote energy conservation, improve resource utilization efficiency, vigorously develop the circular economy, improve the comprehensive utilization efficiency of resource productivity and resource greatly. Therefore, the circular economy has become the realization of Northeast China the transformation of the mode of economy, building a resource-saving, environment-friendly society inevitable choice. Based on the core idea of circular economy, the use of data envelopment analysis model of northeast three Efficiency evaluation of circular economy province. With the efficient use of resources and pollutants emission reduction as the research focus, adding this undesirableoutputs pollutants in the process of efficiency evaluation, data envelopment analysis combined with the characteristics of each model, the final selection of the SBM data envelopment analysis model with non expected output expansion efficiency evaluation of circular economy of Northeast China internal administrative level in reference to the previous research area. At the same time, according to the data envelopment analysis index selection, and ultimately determine the 3 input indicators and 3 output indicators. By 2009-2013 years in Northeast China 35 level administrative region circular economy panel data in this paper, the internal efficiency evaluation, using SBM model with non expected output results the status of the development of circular economy in northeast across the administrative region of circular economy is poor, the average efficiency is only 0.378. at the same time, around the administrative region of circular economy. The rate of value fluctuation, in addition to the annual DEA effective area, the steady increase efficiency value of only a handful of Tonghua and Jinzhou and other regions, efficiency values appear repeatedly throughout the rest, development condition is not stable. Combined with the 2013 northeast of circular economy data, on technical efficiency of pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of decomposition, obtained the evaluation unit returns to scale, and the corresponding non DEA effective units of input and output redundancy rate. The results show that the circular economy efficiency inferior regions common technical level of circular economy is backward, problem management and low operating efficiency. In addition, the excessive consumption of energy and water has become the primary reasons of present northeast internal initiation efficiency loss. In 2013, Northeast China Circular Economy input and output indicators as cluster variables, using the cluster analysis Division in Northeast China northeast three internal zone. The advantages of circular economy province, prefecture level administrative region for the capital city and coastal city, and the circular economy of middle and inferior level administrative region mainly manifests as the city of heavy industry and resource type city in Northeast China. Based on the evaluation of internal circular economy, through external comparative analysis to further explore the development of circular economy in Northeast China position in contrast to our country. As a sample unit and the decision-making unit analysis, the final choice of generalized data envelopment analysis model with undesirable outputs and super efficiency data envelopment analysis model is realized. The provincial administrative region in comparison, select 2009-2013 years of China's 30 provincial-level administrative region circular economy model with panel data, using SBM non expected output and non expected output generalized data envelopment analysis model comparative analysis of external efficiency. The results show that China's circular economy development The promotion from southeast coastal provinces to the inland provinces of northwest regional distribution characteristics. Advantages and disadvantages of three provinces in Northeast China at this stage in China's middle level, Heilongjiang, development of circular economy in Jilin is close to the East China region, the south region advantage provinces, Liaoning province is more close to the Southwest and northwest regions of most provinces. In addition, the analysis results of provincial administrative region showed that in addition to energy consumption, water consumption is excessive, excessive emissions of sulfur dioxide in Northeast China problems are also very prominent. The prefecture level administrative region in contrast, from 2013 16 provincial capital city circulation economic data as a contrast sample, using super efficiency data envelopment analysis with undesirableoutputs externality comparison of the implementation model. The results show that Haikou, Fuzhou and other capital city efficiency advantages mainly distributed in the southeast coastal provinces, with the efficiency value decrease gradually to the Middle West The capital city of the northern inland extension, the evaluation results and the results are basically consistent. The provincial administrative area of Suihua and Daqing two prominent advantages in Northeast China regional administrative region, circular economy efficiency level is close to the capital city of the southeast coast. Huludao, Fushun, Anshan and Benxi due to the consumption of resources, waste and resource recycling and other aspects of the problem leads to evaluation the lowest level in the country. In addition, northeast level administrative region in the development of circular economy are obvious. Polarization in Northeast China, the external evaluation of circular economy efficiency results show that external factors have impact on Northeast China to promote circular economy. Analysis of factors affecting the efficiency of circular economy from the efficiency evaluation results of selected 13 explanantions variable, and the cycle of economic efficiency of the 1 explanatory variables. Due to the cycle of economic efficiency between 0 and 1 between the truncated data, The final analysis using Tobit regression analysis model in order to achieve the effect of three provinces in Northeast China circular economy efficiency factor. The results showed that the per capita GDP, fiscal expenditure has a significant positive correlation between the science and technology of circular economy efficiency, indicates that the future for a period of time in Northeast China should actively implement cycle for the concept of the mode of economic growth, promote the rapid development of the national the economy. At the same time, increase investment in science and technology in the field of circular economy, improve the technology level of circular economy and management and operational efficiency, increase the cycle of economic development role. Garbage harmless treatment rate, energy consumption, emissions of sulfur dioxide, the industry accounted for the proportion of GDP, non agricultural population accounts for the ratio of circular economy efficiency a significant negative correlation, the three provinces in Northeast China in urbanization, improve the ecological environment and the industrial structure adjustment aspect To make further optimization. In order to promote urbanization and accelerate industrial upgrading and structural adjustment, from the production, circulation, life in various fields, mainly focus on the implementation of the use of resources, and pollution control and abatement, effectively eliminate the external influence factors of circular economy negative restriction in Northeast. In the development of circular economy, the paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures. At present, the development of circular economy in Northeast China in the middle level, the internal polarization is obvious. How to improve the efficiency of circular economy in Northeast China, it needs to develop strategic innovation driven by government, supervision and management for the protection of the in economic reform, change the mode of economic growth, urbanization and other means to achieve integration, to resolve the overcapacity, the change of industry structure, production efficiency improvement, Resource efficient utilization and improvement of environmental pollution. Through multiple fields of integration, we have provided a platform, innovative and guaranteed benign development environment for three provinces in Northeast China.

【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F127

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