“中国制造”对全球经济“大稳

发布时间：2018-03-28 21:47

本文选题：全球价值链　切入点：增加值贸易　出处：《中国社会科学》2015年10期

【摘要】：采集22个中国主要贸易伙伴1984—2012年的数据,利用System GMM方法剖析"中国制造"对全球经济"大稳健"时期的影响,研究发现:贸易规模、实际有效汇率、石油价格、固定资本投资等变量显著扩大了全球经济波动,但是"中国制造"显著抑制了各国产出增长率波动,显著降低了发达国家物价水平的波动,有助于全球经济增长维系在"高水平、低波动"区制。全球价值链下的"中国制造"是一个长期变量。中国应利用全球价值链重组,进一步提升和发展加工制造业,拓展国际市场空间;面对发达国家不合理的贸易制裁,有选择地使用"镜像策略",选取对方同一行业或者相似企业进行相应的反制裁;加强与其他国家的政策协调,改善全球经济治理,构建全球价值链时代的国际经济新秩序。
[Abstract]:The data of 22 major trading partners of China from 1984 to 2012 were collected, and the influence of "made in China" on the global economy during the period of "great stability" was analyzed by System GMM method. The results showed that: trade scale, real effective exchange rate, oil price, etc. Variables such as fixed capital investment have significantly expanded the global economic volatility, but "made in China" has significantly restrained fluctuations in the growth rate of output in various countries and significantly reduced the volatility of price levels in developed countries. "made in China" under the global value chain is a long-term variable. China should take advantage of the restructuring of the global value chain to further upgrade and develop processing manufacturing, To expand international market space; to selectively use "mirror strategy" in the face of unreasonable trade sanctions from developed countries, and to select the opposite side of the same industry or similar enterprises to carry out corresponding counter-sanctions; and to strengthen policy coordination with other countries. Improve global economic governance and build a new international economic order in the era of global value chains.
【作者单位】：南京财经大学国际经贸学院;南京大学经济学院;
【基金】：教育部长江学者和创新团队发展计划资助项目(IRT13020)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F113

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