防止中美两种“新常态”经济周期错配深度恶化

发布时间：2018-04-03 11:09

本文选题：经济“新常态”　切入点：经济周期公共因子　出处：《经济学动态》2014年07期

【摘要】：2008年国际金融危机之后,美国经济经历了高失业、低增长的弱复苏过程,美国经济的"新常态"概念逐渐被越来越多的人接受。2011年以来,中国也出现了经济增长放缓的趋势。本文从五个方面概括了中国经济"新常态",并比较了当前中国和美国两种"新常态"经济的周期性特征,认为美国"新常态"经济复苏向好的基础比较坚实,但也存在一定的不确定性;中国"新常态"经济仍处于去杠杆、去泡沫过程。中美两种"新常态"经济出现周期错配继续延续的可能性加大,但中国具备一系列政策工具防止中美经济周期错配深度恶化可能引发的二次冲击。当前迫切需要保持定力,坚持底线思维,坚持改革方向不动摇。在去杠杆的同时,通过微刺激实现底线增长率以上的增长目标;通过深化经济体制改革释放改革红利,尽量避免与发达经济体"脱钩",挖掘经济增长新源泉,实现可持续的高效增长。
[Abstract]:After the international financial crisis in 2008, the U.S. economy experienced a weak recovery of high unemployment and low growth, and the concept of a "new normal" of the U.S. economy was gradually accepted by more and more people. Since 2011, China has also shown a trend of slowing economic growth.This paper summarizes the "new normal" of China's economy from five aspects, and compares the cyclical characteristics of the current "new normal" economy between China and the United States, and holds that the basis for the recovery of the "new normal" economy of the United States is relatively solid.But there is uncertainty; China's "new normal" economy is still deleveraging and bubbling.The possibility of a continuation of the cycle mismatch in the two "new normal" economies between China and the United States is increasing, but China has a range of policy tools at its disposal to prevent a possible secondary shock from a deterioration in the depth of the cycle mismatch between China and the United States.At present, there is an urgent need to maintain a firm mind, adhere to the bottom line of thinking, and adhere to the direction of reform.While deleveraging, achieving growth targets above the bottom line growth rate through micro-stimulus; unleashing the reform dividend by deepening economic system reforms, avoiding "decoupling" from developed economies as far as possible, and tapping new sources of economic growth,Achieving sustainable and efficient growth.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院财经战略研究院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大招标课题“加快经济结构调整与促进经济自主协调发展研究”(批准号12&ZD084,首席专家张平);国家社会科学基金重大招标课题“正确处理经济平稳较快发展、调整经济结构、管理通胀预期的关系研究”(批准号12&ZD038,首席专家张连城) 中国社会科学院创新工程重大招标项目“促进经济发展方式转变的创新和改革研究”的资助
【分类号】：F171.2;F124

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