安徽省碳排放驱动因素分析

发布时间：2018-04-05 02:21

本文选题：STIRPAT模型　切入点：安徽省　出处：《安徽大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：气候变暖已经是全球面临的公共性问题,上世纪中冰川加速融化、海平面持续上升、极端气候频繁出现等等,无疑都昭示着气候的变化将对人类赖以生存的地球生态环境造成极为严重的影响,如果人类不及时采取应对措施,我们将是全球气候变暖的最大受害者。目前,中国已经超越美国成为全球二氧化碳排放量最大的国家,面对发达国家不断施加的外交压力,以及国内生态环境出现不可逆转的恶化,迫使还处在发展阶段的中国面临着非常严峻的碳减排问题,在这个背景下,安徽省积极响应国家号召,围绕国家提出的“十二五规划”制定了本省的二氧化碳减排目标,建立了发展低碳经济的政策环境。为了给安徽省节能减排政策提供强有力的理论支持,并提出行之有效的政策措施,本文对安徽省二氧化碳驱动因素展开研究。本文以现有的文献为基础,讨论了可能影响碳排放的驱动因素,分析发现主要涉及人口、经济和技术三个方面,为选择适合考察安徽省碳排放的指标提供分析基础。随后,本文分析研究了安徽省经济发展中的碳排放现状。通过比对国内碳排放环境与全球其他发达国家的碳排放情况,认识到我国实行低碳经济的紧迫性和重要性。通过计算安徽省二氧化碳排放量,并分析比对其与“中部崛起”战略涉及的其他省份,以及泛长三角地区省市的碳排放数据,发现随着安徽省经济的高速增长,碳排放量增速明显高于其他省市。在此基础上,本文继续探索并分析了安徽省三次产业的发展进程,在经历多次产业调整后安徽省三次产业发展趋稳,第二产业成为支柱产业,其对省内的碳排放影响很大。在上述分析的基础上,本文以STIRPAT模型为基础,并对模型进行了拓展,定量分析了安徽省1995年至2010年间二氧化碳排放量与工业产业产值、城市化率、RD经费投入强度和能源强度四个指标之间的关系。研究结果表明,工业产业产值对安徽省二氧化碳排放量的影响最为显著,城市化率、RD经费投入强度和能源强度对安徽省二氧化碳排放量均有正向影响。此后,本文在上述研究结果之上,对工业产业和碳排放的影响进行深入探讨,定量分析了安徽省1995年至2010年间钢铁、有色、建材、电力、石油加工和化学制造6大工业产业对二氧化碳排放量的影响程度。研究结果显示电力和石油加工行业是工业产业中对安徽省碳排放影响程度较大的两个产业,且电力行业的影响最为显著,其他四个行业对安徽省二氧化碳排放也具有较高的关联度。根据实证分析的结果,本文给安徽省的低碳经济发展提出了政策建议,希望安徽省加强重点工业领域的节能减排措施,提高产业能源使用效率；加快优化省内的产业结构,重点发展具有高附加值的产业；积极研发和应用新能源,优化省内能源结构；加强对发展低碳经济和实施节能减排措施的政府宣传、政策扶持。本文希望对于安徽省发展低碳经济有借鉴意义,为中国乃至全球应对气候变暖的不懈工作贡献微薄之力。
[Abstract]:Climate change has been a global problem for global warming . In the past century , glaciers accelerated melting , sea level continued to rise , extreme weather frequently appeared , and so on . In this context , China has become the largest victim of global warming . At present , China has surpassed the US as the world ' s biggest victim of global warming . In this context , Anhui actively responds to the call of the country , and has set up a policy environment for developing low - carbon economy . In order to provide strong theoretical support for energy conservation and emission reduction policies in Anhui Province , and put forward effective policy measures , this paper studies the carbon dioxide driving factors in Anhui Province .

Based on the existing literature , this paper discusses the driving factors which may affect the emission of carbon . Based on the analysis of carbon emission in Anhui province , this paper analyzes the current situation of carbon emission in Anhui province .

Based on the above analysis , the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and industrial output value , urbanization rate , RD financing input intensity and energy intensity in Anhui province from 1995 to 2010 is analyzed quantitatively . The results show that the impact of industrial output value on carbon dioxide emissions in Anhui province is the most significant . The research results show that the power and petroleum processing industry is two industries which have great influence on carbon emission in Anhui province from 1995 to 2010 . The results show that electric power and petroleum processing industry are two industries which have great influence on carbon emission in Anhui province from 1995 to 2010 .

Based on the results of the empirical analysis , this paper puts forward policy suggestions for low carbon economy development in Anhui province , and hopes that Anhui will strengthen energy conservation and emission reduction measures in key industrial fields and improve the efficiency of industrial energy use ;
Accelerate the optimization of the industrial structure in the province , and focus on the development of industries with high added value ;
actively develop and apply new energy sources and optimize the energy structure in the province ;
This paper hopes to make reference for the development of low - carbon economy in Anhui Province and contribute to the unremitting efforts of China and the global response to global warming .

【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F205

【参考文献】