考虑房地产的家庭跨期消费储蓄行为研究

发布时间：2018-04-13 21:40

本文选题：生命周期 + 跨期消费　；参考：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国经济发展进入新的阶段,寻求经济的增长点的重心又一次的转移到提振内需上,家庭消费成为提振内需的重中之重。但是我国目前依然存在储蓄率偏高和消费不足的问题。宏观的总量如果不与构成宏观经济基础的微观经济行为人的行为联系在一起,就很难揭示问题的本质。消费是构成一个国家总需求的主要部分,消费波动对总需求影响极大。研究消费和储蓄有助于探索一些对宏观经济运行具有重要意义的问题。家庭作为我国经济运行的微观基础,我国家庭跨期消费选择正寻求一个解决的机理,能够为我国经济政策制定提供理论基础。对比中国和美国,家庭投资组合结构迥异。对于金融资产领域中国家庭68%的比例作为银行的储蓄,而在美国股票和养老金之和占比59%,而银行储蓄比例仅占16%,参照国际经验和我国目前金融市场的发展态势,家庭参与金融市场活动会更加主动,形式会更加多样。如果家庭的投资组合发生变化,那么对于家庭的消费函数的流动性约束势必受到影响。与此同时,我国家庭间收入和财富的不均衡已经影响到局面的消费和储蓄,并且目前存在的高房价现象已经影响到家庭政策的生活,房地产对于家庭的跨期消费影响极大。消费理论源于凯恩斯的绝对收入假说,之后经过不断的批判完善而日趋成熟,目前在经济学研究中被大家认可度最高,使用最为频繁的理论模型是生命周期模型,在此基础上,模型又引入了不确定性以及预算约束和流动性约束,根据消费者储蓄的动机来划分效用函数。本文对家庭跨期消费理论的发展演进过程进行了全面的梳理,以明确各种模型之间存在的内在联系,希望能够寻找到家庭跨期消费模型因子之间的相互影响关系。本文的主要成果在于对家庭跨期消费决策机理进行了全面的梳理,并对家庭跨期消费的影响因素做出了定性的分析,并且为家庭跨期消费决策构建了两个基准模型,两个模型均利用动态规划方法,用逆向推导法求解。本文的创新点在于对家庭跨期消费的理论基础进行了系统的梳理；本文建立了一般跨期消费模型和一个包含房地产的家庭跨期消费模型。本文的不足在于限于数据的不可得性和matlab求解动态规划过程中变量维度的复杂性,对于数值模拟的算法需要进一步改进。如果拥有完备的家庭财产分配情况的数据,对于模型的参数校准有着非常深远的意义。文中没有分析世代交叠的模型,只是列出了世代交叠模型的模型公式。
[Abstract]:China's economic development has entered a new stage, the center of gravity of seeking economic growth point has once again shifted to boosting domestic demand, and household consumption has become the most important part of boosting domestic demand.However, our country still has the problem of high savings rate and insufficient consumption.It is difficult to reveal the nature of the problem if the total amount of the macro economy is not related to the behavior of the microeconomic actors who constitute the macro economic basis.Consumption is the main part of a country's total demand, and the fluctuation of consumption has a great impact on the total demand.The study of consumption and savings helps to explore issues of great importance to the operation of the macro-economy.As the microcosmic basis of the economic operation of our country, the family's choice of inter-period consumption in our country is seeking a mechanism to solve it, which can provide the theoretical basis for the formulation of our country's economic policy.Compared with China and the United States, household portfolio structure is very different.With regard to the proportion of 68% of Chinese households in the field of financial assets as bank savings, the sum of stocks and pensions in the United States accounts for 59%, while the proportion of bank savings is only 16.6%. Referring to international experience and the current development trend of the financial market in China,Families will be more active in financial markets and more diverse.If the family's portfolio changes, then the liquidity constraints on the household's consumption function are bound to be affected.At the same time, the imbalance of income and wealth among families in China has affected the consumption and savings of the situation, and the existence of high house prices has affected the life of the family policy, and the real estate has a great impact on the intertemporal consumption of families.Consumption theory originates from Keynes' absolute income hypothesis, and then it is becoming more and more mature through constant criticism and perfection. At present, consumption theory is the most widely accepted model in economic research, and the most frequently used theoretical model is life cycle model, on the basis of which,The model also introduces uncertainty, budget constraints and liquidity constraints, and divides the utility function according to the motivation of consumer savings.This paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the development and evolution of the family intertemporal consumption theory in order to clarify the internal relationship between the various models and hope to find out the interaction between the factors of the family intertemporal consumption model.The main achievement of this paper is to make a comprehensive analysis of the mechanism of family inter-period consumption decision-making, and to make qualitative analysis of the influencing factors of family cross-period consumption, and to construct two benchmark models for family cross-period consumption decision-making.Both models are solved by dynamic programming and inverse derivation.The innovation of this paper lies in the systematic combing of the theoretical basis of family intertemporal consumption and the establishment of a general intertemporal consumption model and a family intertemporal consumption model including real estate.The limitation of this paper is that it is limited to the inaccessibility of data and the complexity of variable dimension in the process of solving dynamic programming by matlab. The algorithm of numerical simulation needs to be further improved.If we have complete data on the distribution of household property, it is of great significance to calibrate the parameters of the model.This paper does not analyze the model of generation overlap, but lists the model formula of generation overlap model.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F299.23;F126.1

【共引文献】