重庆南川区产业结构对经济增长影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-04-15 20:52

本文选题：经济增长 + 产业方向变动　；参考：《重庆大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：现代经济增长的过程中，产业结构扮演着很重要的角色，在这个过程中，经济增长和产业结构变动相互促进，并且不断发展。产业结构的变动不但是现代社会经济增长的必要条件，也是经济持续增长的必然要求。2012年，面对复杂形势和困难挑战，重庆市南川区以转型强区为主线，经济保持了平稳增长的良好势头。据资料显示，2012年，南川区累计实现地区生产总值176.18亿元。分产业看，三次产业结构为17.7：47.4：34.9，各产业同步增长。其中，第一产业实现增加值31.19亿元，增长5.3%；第二产业实现增加值83.48亿元，增长9.9%；第三产业实现增加值61.52亿元，增长16.5%。基于此，为更好加快南川区经济建设，从产业结构的优化上来促进南川区经济又好又快发展，本文从两个个方面对产业结构对于经济增长的影响进行了分析。1，分别以结构方向变动和结构速度变动两个方面对经济增长进行实证分析，利用单位根检验、协整检验、脉冲响应函数等方法讨论和分析两变动因子对经济的影响情况；2，对大三产业增长情况与经济总量的增长情况进行对比分析来研究各个产业对于经济总量增长的贡献和影响。实证分析的研究结果表明：1.产业结构变动方向和产业结构速度变动都与经济总量增长呈正相关关系。2.产业结构速度变动对于经济总量的影响相对于产业结构方向变动对于经济的影响更为稳定。3.就南川区而言，第二产业在三大类产业中，所占比重最大，第三产业所占比重还有待增加。4.南川区的经济总量增长速度与其第三产业增加值增长速度最为贴近，第三产业对于总体经济水平的增长的影响作用最大。因此，提出了南川区产业结构调整的发展方向：1.在兼顾了劳动密集型产业发展的前提下，大力发展资本和技术密集型产业，尽可能地发挥出对经济增长的带动作用。2.推进技术进步和自主创新能力，注重高新技术与传统产业相结介，将第二产业作为吸纳就业的战略重点。3.大力发展第三产业，逐步增加第三产业在产业总量中的比重，，政府和社会应为第三产业的发展提高条件和帮助。4.完善教育体制建设，加强人才教育，为第二、三产业的人力资源充足提供保障；5.建设战略性新兴产业，促进产业结构升级，实现经济发展现代化。
[Abstract]:In the process of modern economic growth, industrial structure plays an important role. In this process, economic growth and industrial structure change promote each other, and continue to develop.The change of industrial structure is not only a necessary condition for modern social and economic growth, but also an inevitable requirement for sustained economic growth. In 2012, in the face of complex situations and difficult challenges, Nanchuan District of Chongqing took the transformation area as the main line.The economy has maintained a good momentum of steady growth.According to data, in 2012, Nanchuan District achieved a cumulative gross domestic product of 17.618 billion yuan.In terms of industry, the three industrial structure is 17.7: 47.4: 34.9. each industry grows synchronously.Among them, the added value of the primary industry was 3.119 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3 percent; the added value of the secondary industry was 8.348 billion yuan, an increase of 9.9 percent; and the added value of the tertiary industry was 6.152 billion yuan, an increase of 16.5 percent.Based on this, in order to better speed up the economic construction of Nanchuan District, from the optimization of industrial structure to promote the economic development of Nanchuan District is sound and fast.This paper analyzes the impact of industrial structure on economic growth from two aspects. 1. It makes empirical analysis on economic growth from two aspects: structural direction change and structural speed change, using unit root test and cointegration test.Impulse response function and other methods are used to discuss and analyze the influence of the two factors on the economy. A comparative analysis is made between the growth of the tertiary industry and the growth of the total economic volume to study the contribution and influence of each industry to the total economic growth.The results of empirical analysis show that 1: 1.The change direction of industrial structure and the change of industrial structure speed have positive correlation with total economic growth. 2. 2.The influence of the speed change of industrial structure on the total amount of economy is more stable than that of the direction of industrial structure.As far as Nanchuan District is concerned, the secondary industry accounts for the largest proportion of the three major industries, and the proportion of the tertiary industry still needs to be increased.The growth rate of the total economic volume in Nanchuan area is most close to the growth rate of the added value of the tertiary industry, and the influence of the tertiary industry on the growth of the overall economic level is the greatest.Therefore, proposed the Nanchuan District industrial structure adjustment development direction: 1.On the premise of taking into account the development of labor-intensive industries, we should vigorously develop capital-and technology-intensive industries and play a driving role in economic growth as much as possible.Promote technological progress and independent innovation ability, pay attention to the combination of high and new technology and traditional industries, take secondary industry as the strategic focus of absorbing employment.To develop the tertiary industry and gradually increase the proportion of the tertiary industry in the total amount of industry, the government and society should improve the conditions and help.Perfect education system construction, strengthen talent education, for the second and third industry human resources adequate security.Build strategic emerging industries, promote industrial structure upgrading, and achieve economic development and modernization.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F127

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