双层博弈视角下台湾当局开放陆资入岛政策评析

发布时间：2018-04-15 21:23

本文选题：陆资入岛 + 双层博弈　；参考：《上海国际问题研究院》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：两岸经济关系是推动两岸关系健康发展的积极因素，但受各种因素影响，长期以来两岸经济关系并未实现正常化，特别是投资关系严重不平衡，大陆资本长期被排除在台湾岛外。2008年马英九上台执政，两岸关系发生历史性的积极转变，与此同时，台湾受国际金融危机影响，经济面临严峻形势。面对内外压力，台当局提出了开放陆资入岛政策，以提振台湾经济。本文尝试运用普特南的双层博弈理论，分别从岛内、岛外两个层面分析解读台湾当局的开放陆资入岛政策。在介绍完双层博弈理论之后，文章首先对陆资入岛的缘起、过程、成就进行梳理。在此基础上依据双层博弈理论的分析框架，对陆资入岛起推动、制约作用的岛内外因素分别进行评析，最后依据理论分析，预测陆资入岛的未来发展前景。从双层博弈的视角来看，台湾当局开放陆资入岛的第一层次，即岛外层面的关键推动、制约因素是大陆与美国。第二层次博弈的主要对手是民进党及绿营支持者。本文认为，在国际金融危机的大背景下，美国、大陆、台湾三方在台海局势稳定上有着共同利益，三方都愿意两岸通过协商对话加强合作，特别是通过提升经济合作水平来巩固两岸关系和平发展的局面。就岛内而言，马英九当局提出开放陆资入岛政策，虽然也遭到了民进党一定程度的阻挠，但并未对马英九当局的决策构成影响，这其中最大的原因在于，面对严峻的经济形势，加强与大陆的经济合作已经成为岛内共识,民进党虽然反对，但未能起到决定性作用。正是在这种岛内、岛外都有利的决策背景下，开放陆资入岛得以顺理成章、水到渠成。但由于岛内独特的政治生态及两岸关系现实，为防止陆资入岛对台湾相关产业形成冲击，台当局在陆资入岛的政策设计与规划上，显得十分小心谨慎，具体措施上更是处处设防。在国际金融危机的影响还未退去，马英九成功连任，，陆资入岛正面效应的初步显现等因素作用下，未来台当局的陆资入岛政策将朝着更加开放的方向发展。
[Abstract]:Economic relations between the two sides of the strait are a positive factor in promoting the healthy development of cross-strait relations. However, affected by various factors, cross-strait economic relations have not been normalized for a long time, especially the serious imbalance in investment relations.Mainland capital has long been excluded from Taiwan. In 2008, when Ma Yingjiu came to power, there was a historic and positive change in cross-strait relations. At the same time, Taiwan was affected by the international financial crisis and its economy was facing a grim situation.In the face of internal and external pressure, the Taiwan authorities put forward the policy of opening mainland capital to the island to boost Taiwan's economy.This paper attempts to use Putnam's two-level game theory to analyze and interpret the Taiwan authorities' policy of open land capital entry from two aspects: inside and outside the island.After introducing the theory of double-level game, the paper firstly combs the origin, process and achievement of land capital entering the island.On this basis, according to the analysis frame of the two-layer game theory, the paper analyzes the factors inside and outside the island which play a role of promoting and restricting the land capital entering the island, and finally predicts the future development prospect of the land capital entering the island according to the theoretical analysis.From the perspective of two-level game, the Taiwan authorities open the first level of land capital entry to the island, that is, the key push of the offshore level, and the restricting factors are the mainland and the United States.The second level of the main opponents of the game is the Democratic Progressive Party and Green Camp supporters.This article holds that, against the background of the international financial crisis, the United States, the mainland, and Taiwan have common interests in the stability of the situation in the Taiwan Strait, and the three sides are willing to strengthen cooperation between the two sides through consultation and dialogue.In particular, by raising the level of economic cooperation to consolidate the peaceful development of cross-strait relations.As far as the island is concerned, although the policy of opening up land capital to the island proposed by Ma Yingjiu authorities has been obstructed to a certain extent by the Democratic Progressive Party, it has not affected the decision-making of the Ma Yingjiu administration. The biggest reason is that in the face of the severe economic situation,Strengthening economic cooperation with the mainland has become a consensus on the island, but the DPP has failed to play a decisive role in opposing it.It is in this kind of island, outside the island favorable decision-making background, open land capital into the island can be natural and natural.However, due to the unique political ecology of the island and the reality of cross-strait relations, in order to prevent the entry of land capital into the island against the impact on Taiwan's related industries, the Taiwan authorities have been very careful in the policy design and planning for the entry of mainland capital into the island.Concrete measures are even more fortification everywhere.Under the influence of the international financial crisis, Ma Yingjiu's successful reelection and the initial positive effect of the land capital entry, the policy of the Taiwan authorities will be more open in the future.
【学位授予单位】：上海国际问题研究院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：D618

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