中国省际区域经济的增长趋势和波动周期研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 20:27

本文选题：增长趋势 + 波动周期　；参考：《暨南大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：区域经济一体化的速度和质量在一定程度上受区域经济长期增长趋势和短期波动周期的影响。本文选择从实证的角度来研究中国省际区域自1952年以来长期经济增长过程中所表现出来的共性和异性。借助于小波分析和聚类分析等实证方法，本文实现了对各省市人均GDP数据的处理和分析，并得出以下结论： 1、在长期增长趋势方面，各省市表现出如下的特征：整体上看来，全国大部分省市在1952-2010年间共出现了3次低谷，但向上增长的趋势并没有改变；从相关系数矩阵的值来看，东部沿海省市内部长期经济增长趋势的相关性要大于中部省市，而中部又要大于西部；从相关系数矩阵的检验结果来看，共有5组省市的检验P值高于5%，而其它省市之间表现出显著的相关性；与其它省市相比，东部沿海省市改革开放后的聚集度明显高于改革开放前。 2、在短期波动周期方面主要存在以下特征：从波谷个数来看，全国各省市至少出现了10次波谷，，最多的省市甚至有14次；从波动的幅度和频率来看，我国各省市均呈现出收敛趋势，且东部沿海省市的收敛速度和幅度领先于其它省市；从省市之间短期波动的相关系数矩阵来看，共有44组省市的相关系数未能通过统计检验；聚类结果表明，改革开放后东部省份的聚集程度明显提高。 3、在区域经济的收敛性分析方面：我国省际区域之间不存在σ收敛和条件β收敛，但存在弱绝对β收敛，其收敛系数为-0.007，P值为0.0035。
[Abstract]:To a certain extent, the speed and quality of regional economic integration are influenced by the long-term growth trend and short-term fluctuation cycle of regional economy.This paper chooses to study the commonness and heterogeneity in the process of long-term economic growth in China's inter-provincial regions since 1952 from an empirical point of view.With the help of wavelet analysis and cluster analysis, this paper realizes the processing and analysis of the per capita GDP data of provinces and cities, and draws the following conclusions:1. In terms of long-term growth trend, the provinces and cities show the following characteristics: overall, most provinces and cities in the whole country in 1952-2010 a total of three lows, but the upward trend of growth has not changed; from the value of the correlation coefficient matrix,The correlation of the long-term economic growth trend in the eastern coastal provinces and cities is greater than that in the central provinces and cities, and the central part is larger than the western region.The test P value of five groups of provinces was higher than that of other provinces and cities, and the aggregation degree of eastern coastal provinces after reform and opening up was significantly higher than that of other provinces and cities.2. There are the following characteristics in the short-term fluctuation cycle: from the number of troughs, there are at least 10 troughs in all provinces and cities in China, and even 14 in the most provinces and cities, and the amplitude and frequency of the fluctuations are as follows.The convergence speed and amplitude of the eastern coastal provinces and cities are higher than those of other provinces and cities, and from the correlation coefficient matrix of short-term fluctuation between provinces and cities, 44 groups of correlation coefficients of provinces and cities fail to pass the statistical test.The clustering results show that the degree of aggregation in the eastern provinces is obviously improved after the reform and opening up.3. In terms of convergence analysis of regional economy, there is no 蟽 convergence and conditional 尾 convergence among provinces in China, but there is weak absolute 尾 convergence, and its convergence coefficient is -0.007 P = 0.0035.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F124.8

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