反倾销对中国产业影响的理论与实证分析

发布时间：2018-04-21 15:33

本文选题：反倾销税 + 多厂商寡占竞争模型　；参考：《湖南大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,受世界经济增速减慢以及关税、进口数量限制等传统贸易保护手段受到严格控制的影响,越来越多的国家将反倾销作为首选的保护手段。随着中国改革开放和入世的不断深入,中国对外贸易经济取得了令人瞩目的成绩,但同时也成为了世界各国反倾销的主要目标,这不仅严重影响了中国与其他国家间的贸易关系,也制约了中国的出口贸易以及国内相关产业的生存与发展,更由于产业间存在着复杂而紧密的技术经济联系,使得反倾销也会对中国整个国民经济带来巨大的冲击。由于反倾销税是中国遭受的最主要的反倾销措施,因此,全面分析反倾销税对中国产业经济的影响非常重要。本文首先详细分析了中国遭遇国际反倾销的现状,其次通过构建多厂商寡占竞争模型从理论上研究了国外反倾销税对中国涉案行业的对外贸易、国内厂商以及社会福利的影响;最后,在分析产业关联机制的基础上,构建了投入产出价格影响模型,用以分析反倾销税对非涉案行业的关联影响,并以纺织业反倾销为例,进行了实证检验。研究显示:对于涉案行业,涉案出口厂商较高的行业集中度、仅供国内消费厂商间较高的推测弹性有利于减弱反倾销税对本国出口贸易和国内厂商产出的冲击,而本国涉案产品长期的市场价格取决于在本国市场中仅供国内消费厂商总产出、本国从外国厂商的总进口量与本国供国内外消费厂商总内销量间的敏感程度,但无论市场价格如何变化,增强国内对涉案产品的市场需求总是有利的。对于非涉案行业,由于产业关联的存在,反倾销税导致的涉案产品价格的变动会通过各产业间的成本价格关联机制逐步传递到其他产业,当涉案产品为中间投入品时,由于是正向直接传递,反倾销税的价格影响幅度对涉案产品的下游产业的影响大于上游产业,波及范围也更为广泛。纺织业的实证案例也证明了这一点。
[Abstract]:In recent years, due to the slowdown of world economic growth and the strict control of traditional trade protection measures such as tariffs and import quantity restrictions, more and more countries have taken anti-dumping as the preferred means of protection. With the deepening of China's reform and opening up and WTO entry, China's foreign trade economy has made remarkable achievements, but at the same time, it has also become the main target of anti-dumping in various countries in the world. This not only seriously affects the trade relations between China and other countries, but also restricts China's export trade and the survival and development of domestic related industries. Make anti-dumping will also bring huge impact to the whole national economy of China. Since anti-dumping duty is the most important anti-dumping measure suffered by China, it is very important to analyze the impact of anti-dumping duty on China's industrial economy. This paper first analyzes the current situation of China's international anti-dumping in detail, and then studies the influence of foreign anti-dumping duty on the foreign trade, domestic manufacturers and social welfare in China by constructing a multi-firm oligopoly competition model. Finally, on the basis of analyzing the industrial correlation mechanism, the paper constructs the input-output price influence model, which is used to analyze the correlation effect of anti-dumping duty on non-related industries, and takes the textile industry anti-dumping as an example to carry out an empirical test. The study shows that for the industries involved, the higher industry concentration of the export firms involved, and the higher speculative elasticity among domestic consumer firms only, is conducive to reducing the impact of anti-dumping duties on domestic export trade and the output of domestic manufacturers. The long-term market price of the domestic products involved depends on the sensitivity between the total output of domestic consumer manufacturers in the domestic market, the total imports from foreign manufacturers and the total domestic sales volume of domestic and foreign consumer manufacturers. But no matter how the market price changes, increasing domestic market demand for the products involved is always advantageous. For non-involved industries, because of the existence of industrial linkages, changes in the prices of the products involved caused by anti-dumping duties will be gradually transferred to other industries through the cost-price correlation mechanism among industries. When the products involved are intermediate inputs, Because of the positive direct transmission, the effect of anti-dumping duty price on the downstream industry of the products involved is greater than that of the upstream industry, and the scope of the impact is also more extensive. The case of textile industry also proves this.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.02;F124

【参考文献】