从“遗传基因”发现日本经济“病因”——兼论安倍经济政策效果

发布时间：2018-04-22 19:41

本文选题：日本经济病 + 遗传基因　；参考：《东北亚论坛》2014年02期

【摘要】：全球对有关日本经济究竟病在何处一直迷惑不解,有泡沫经济论、流动性陷阱、借贷平衡表危机、金融系统性风险等,从不同角度分析给出结论。系统性诊断日本经济病,还需借助医学原理,从日本经济久病不愈分析,日本经济根源性问题应该发生在"基因"层面。为此,需要从战后日本经济周期演变规律切入,寻找贯穿始终的主要因素,诊断"基因的病理",才能真正发现问题所在。战后日本经历了一次长周期、三大阶段演变,其中政党执政理念、出口导向型增长模式、投资与消费对日本经济盛衰发挥了至关重要作用,而不动产、人口老龄化因素发挥了次重要作用。对照"三主两次"的"基因病状",安倍政府的经济政策不过是缓解症状而已,未来日本经济前景还将重回下降通道,甚至崩溃。
[Abstract]:The world has been puzzled about where the Japanese economy has been ill, such as bubble economy, liquidity trap, loan balance sheet crisis, financial systemic risk and so on. It gives a conclusion from different angles. The systematic diagnosis of Japan's economic disease requires the aid of medical principles to analyze the Japanese economic root problems and the Japanese economic root problems. It should occur at the "gene" level. To this end, it is necessary to find out the main factors that run through the post-war Japanese economic cycle, to find out the main factors that run through, and to diagnose the "gene pathology". In order to truly discover the problem, Japan has experienced a long period and three stages of evolution, in which the political party's ruling concept, the export oriented growth model, investment and elimination are the same. It plays a vital role in Japan's economic growth and decline, while real estate has played an important role in the aging population. Compared to "three" "two times" "gene disease", the Andouble administration's economic policy is merely a symptom relief, and the future of Japan's economic prospects will return to the decline, or even collapse.

【作者单位】：中国商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院;
【分类号】：F131.3

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