内生人口结构视角下的人口年龄结构与居民消费率——基于PVAR模型的动态分析

发布时间：2018-04-24 23:32

本文选题：少儿抚养比 + 老年抚养比　；参考：《中国流通经济》2014年07期

【摘要】：消费是影响国民经济持续增长的重要因素。我国消费不足由来已久并受到了各界的广泛关注,而导致我国居民消费不足、消费率下降的原因很多,其中一个不容忽视的因素就是我国人口结构发生了巨大的变化。基于此,可在生命周期理论基础上,对消费函数进行扩展,对家庭跨期消费选择进行建模,并利用省级面板数据将人口年龄结构内生化,利用面板VAR模型来分析少儿抚养比、老年抚养比、居民消费率与经济增长之间的相互关系。研究结果表明,少儿抚养比的下降与老年抚养比的上升是导致我国居民消费率持续下降的一个重要原因;少儿抚养负担过重不利于经济增长,而老龄化对中国经济并未造成不良影响;随着经济的增长,少儿抚养比会降低,老年抚养比会升高,将出现老龄化过程。因此,为更好地促进居民消费,应由严格控制人口增长的扩大内需向允许人口适度增长的扩大内需转变;挖掘老年人口消费需求,使之成为新的经济增长点;合理开发老年人力资源,探索弹性退体制度。
[Abstract]:Consumption is an important factor affecting the sustained growth of the national economy. The shortage of consumption in our country has long been concerned by all walks of life, but there are many reasons for the shortage of consumption and the decline of consumption rate in our country. One of the factors that can not be ignored is that the population structure of our country has changed greatly. Based on this, we can expand the consumption function on the basis of life cycle theory, model the family consumption choice over time, and use the provincial panel data to internalize the age structure of the population, and use the panel VAR model to analyze the dependency ratio of children. The relationship between old age dependency ratio, resident consumption rate and economic growth. The results show that the decrease of children's dependency ratio and the increase of old age's dependency ratio are one of the important reasons leading to the continuous decline of the consumption rate of our country's residents, and the excessive burden of children's support is not conducive to economic growth But the aging has no adverse effect on the Chinese economy; as the economy grows, the child-dependent ratio will decrease, the old-age dependency ratio will increase, and the aging process will take place. Therefore, in order to promote residents' consumption, it is necessary to change from strictly controlling the population growth to expanding the domestic demand that allows the population to increase moderately, so as to excavate the consumption demand of the elderly population and make it a new economic growth point. Rational development of human resources for the elderly and exploration of flexible withdrawal system.
【作者单位】：广西财经学院;中央财经大学;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金“人口年龄结构变动对居民消费的影响及对策研究”(项目编号:13CRK024)、国家社会科学基金“边疆民族地区加快经济发展方式转变与改善民生研究”(项目编号:11XMZ050)的部分研究成果
【分类号】：F126.1;C924.2

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