信用扩张与实体经济内部失衡

发布时间：2018-04-25 20:50

本文选题：信用扩张 + 内部失衡　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文从理论和历史事实出发，立足于从实体经济内部的失衡来考察信用扩张对实体经济所造成的负面影响。理论上，本文详细解读了马克思主义以及西方经济学主要流派的理论体系中对信用扩张和经济失衡的相关方面所进行的分析，在明确了信用扩张可能会造成实体经济内部失衡的基础上，综合各方理论，形成了信用扩张造成实体经济内部总量与结构失衡的分析框架，并分析了信用扩张可能造成实体经济内部失衡的各种传导机制。第一，信用扩张通过直接影响总需求而造成实体经济内部失衡；第二，信用扩张造成金融市场的不稳定，而导致实体经济内部失衡。在理论分析之后，本文还基于中国经济现实，在前文所建立的理论分析框架下，分析了中国货币当局实行信用扩张带来中国实体经济内部失衡的经济现象，并利用中国宏观经济的实际数据进行了实证分析。分析采用了计量经济学中常用的VAR模型，对中国金融机构信贷增长、国内生产总值、以及投资消费贡献比例数据进行建模，并进行脉冲相应分析，证实了偏离信贷增长潜在路径的人为信用扩张会造成GDP增长偏离潜在增长路径的高涨，从而导致需求超过供给，形成经济总量失衡，同时也会造成投资消费贡献比率偏离潜在增长趋势的升高，这意味着带来了内需结构变化而结构性失衡。此外，，本文还讨论了在中国现有金融体系下，信用扩张造成金融体系不稳定而导致经济失衡的可能性。基于实证分析的结论，本文提出了两点政策建议：第一，避免过度信用扩张，同时，经济困难时期的信用扩张最好与扩大基础建设为主的财政政策相配合；第二，加强消费金融制度的建设，使得消费与投资能够在信用扩张的过程中平衡发展。
[Abstract]:This paper, based on the theoretical and historical facts, based on the imbalance in the real economy, examines the negative effects of credit expansion on the real economy. In theory, this article explains in detail the analysis of the related aspects of credit expansion and economic imbalances in the theoretical system of Marx and the main schools of western economics. On the basis of the fact that the credit expansion may cause the internal imbalance of the real economy, the comprehensive parties theory has formed the analysis framework of the unbalance between the total and the structure of the real economy caused by the credit expansion, and analyses the various transmission mechanisms that the credit expansion may cause the internal imbalance in the real economy. First, the credit expansion has direct influence on the general economy. The demand causes the internal imbalance of the real economy; second, the credit expansion causes the instability of the financial market, which leads to the internal imbalance of the real economy. After the theoretical analysis, this paper also is based on the economic reality of China. Under the theoretical analysis framework established in the previous article, the Chinese currency authorities have carried out credit expansion to bring the real economy into China's real economy. The imbalance of the economic phenomenon, and using the actual data of the Chinese macro-economy to carry out an empirical analysis. The analysis adopted the VAR model commonly used in econometrics, modeling the credit growth, GDP, and investment consumption contribution ratio of the Chinese financial institutions, and carried out a corresponding pulse analysis, which confirmed the deviation from the credit growth. The potential path of human credit expansion will cause the GDP growth to deviate from the potential growth path, which leads to the excess demand, the imbalance of the total economic total, and the increase of the investment consumption contribution ratio that deviates from the potential growth trend, which means the structural imbalance of domestic demand structure. In addition, this paper also discusses the structural imbalance. Under the existing financial system in China, the credit expansion has caused the instability of the financial system and the possibility of economic imbalances. Based on the conclusion of the empirical analysis, this paper puts forward two policy suggestions: first, avoid excessive credit expansion, and the credit expansion in economic difficulties should be matched with the fiscal policy based on the expansion of the basic construction. The second is to strengthen the construction of consumer financial system, so that consumption and investment can be balanced in the process of credit expansion.

【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832;F124

【参考文献】