河北省区域综合实力评价研究

发布时间：2018-04-28 22:16

本文选题：综合评价 + G1熵值法　；参考：《河北经贸大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：2011年3月，全国“两会”审议通过的“十二五”规划纲要指出，必须以科学发展为主题，以加快转变经济发展方式为主线，坚持把科技进步作为加快转变经济发展方式的重要支撑，旨在建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会，促进经济社会发展与人口资源环境相协调，走可持续发展之路。这就要求对区域内人口、资源、环境、经济、社会、科技几大系统的发展趋势和相关程度有整体的评价，并分析对影响各个系统的敏感因子。首先，本文建立了河北省PERDST综合实力评价指标体系，并采用主客观组合赋权法G1熵值法对河北省2006-2010年的数据进行量化处理，最后得出河北省区域综合实力评价的结果，并分别对六大系统发展趋势进行分析，找出其各自的敏感因子，对今后的发展方向提出政策建议。其次，在京津冀一体化战略背景下，本文通过精简的指标体系，对三个省市的综合实力和PERDST六个方面的发展情况作了对比，以找出河北省的发展优势和劣势，为今后河北省各方面协调均衡的可持续发展提出建议。在赋权方法上，采用主客观结合的G1-熵值法对指标进行赋权。模型使用G1法的专家排序，并通过熵值来确定指标对上级指标的重要性赋值。使得组合权重既反映了专家意见又能反映指标数据变化，避免了G1法中指标之间重要程度人为确定的弊端，而没有客观标准问题，避免了常规主客观赋权法所引起权重不合理分配的问题。利用标准化数据和最终赋权，计算出河北省各个系统评价得分，以及五年间河北省综合实力得分。根据每个系统得分走势，分析政策对各个系统得分以及总得分的影响，并分析各个系统对整体综合实力的影响，以得出影响河北省综合发展的敏感因子。在京津冀对比评价系统中个，分别根据系统、时序，两个标准对得分进行分析。通过各系统中三省市得分排名和以年为单位的得分走势分析，得出河北省在京津冀一体化战略中的优势系统，以及三省市近年来综合得分发展情况。根据PERDST指标体系，得出的结论为：河北省的整体综合得分是逐年上升的，这说明各系统在五年发展过程中有一定的互相协调能力，河北省在近年来的总体综合实力在不断增强中，其中资源系统的支撑，社会系统的稳定，科技系统的推动对经济发展乃至整体实力增强起到了重要的作用。根据京津冀对比评价结果，河北省在拥有资源和基础建设优势和传统工业、加工制造业优势的同时，也面临着经济发展相对封闭，流动性不足、产业结构不合理等问题。利用自然和人力资源，发挥自身基础产业的优势，，大力发展农业的现代化、产业化；工业与港口产业差异化发展，注重高科技产业与服务业的发展等措施，有助于河北省逐步提高经济实力，实现京津冀区域整体均衡发展。
[Abstract]:In March 2011, the outline of the "12th Five-Year Plan", which was deliberated and adopted by the National "two sessions", pointed out that scientific development must be the main theme and the main line should be speeding up the transformation of the mode of economic development. In order to build a resource-conserving and environment-friendly society, to promote the coordination of economic and social development with population, resources and environment, and to take the road of sustainable development, we should regard scientific and technological progress as an important support for speeding up the transformation of economic development. This requires an overall evaluation of the development trend and related degree of population, resources, environment, economy, society, science and technology in the region, and an analysis of the sensitive factors affecting each system. First of all, this paper establishes the evaluation index system of Hebei province PERDST comprehensive strength, and uses the subjective and objective combination weighting method G1 entropy method to quantify the data of Hebei province from 2006 to 2010. Finally, the results of Hebei province regional comprehensive strength evaluation are obtained. The development trends of the six systems are analyzed, their respective sensitive factors are found out, and some policy suggestions are put forward for the future development direction. Secondly, under the background of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration strategy, this paper compares the comprehensive strength of three provinces with the development of PERDST in order to find out the development strengths and weaknesses of Hebei Province through the simplified index system. Suggestions are put forward for coordinated and balanced sustainable development in Hebei Province in the future. In the method of weighting, the index is weighted by the combination of objective and subjective G _ 1-entropy method. The model uses the G _ 1 method to rank the experts, and determines the importance of the index to the superior index by entropy. The combination weight not only reflects the expert opinion but also reflects the change of index data, avoids the disadvantage of artificially determining the importance degree between indexes in G1 method, and has no objective standard problem. It avoids the problem of unreasonable distribution of weights caused by conventional subjective and objective weighting methods. By using standardized data and final weighting, the evaluation scores of each system in Hebei Province and the scores of Hebei's comprehensive strength in five years are calculated. According to the trend of each system score, the influence of policy on each system score and total score is analyzed, and the influence of each system on the overall comprehensive strength is analyzed in order to obtain the sensitive factors that affect the comprehensive development of Hebei Province. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei comparative evaluation system, the scores were analyzed according to the system, time series and two criteria. Through the analysis of the score ranking of three provinces and cities in each system and the analysis of the scoring trend in terms of year, the author draws the conclusion that Hebei Province has advantages in the integrated strategy of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and the comprehensive score development of the three provinces and cities in recent years. According to the PERDST index system, the conclusion is that the overall comprehensive score of Hebei Province is rising year by year, which indicates that the systems have some ability to coordinate with each other in the development process of five years. In recent years, the overall comprehensive strength of Hebei Province is increasing, in which the support of resource system, the stability of social system and the promotion of science and technology system play an important role in the economic development and even the overall strength enhancement. According to the comparative evaluation results of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Province, Hebei Province has the advantages of resources and infrastructure, traditional industry and processing manufacturing industry, but also faces the problems of relatively closed economic development, insufficient liquidity, unreasonable industrial structure and so on. To make use of natural and human resources, to give full play to the advantages of their own basic industries, to vigorously develop the modernization and industrialization of agriculture, to differentiate the development of industry from the port industry, and to pay attention to the development of high-tech industries and service industries, etc. It is helpful for Hebei Province to gradually improve its economic strength and realize the balanced development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei regions as a whole.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F127

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