全球通货膨胀的驱动因素与对我国的冲击效应研究

发布时间：2018-05-05 00:25

本文选题：通货膨胀 + 全球通货膨胀　；参考：《天津财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：全球金融危机之后,世界各国为了刺激本国经济的复苏,纷纷实施宽松的货币政策,尤以美国、日本等为首的发达经济体进行了几轮量化宽松政策,向市场注入了大量的流动性；另外,美元指数不断下行,大宗商品价格屡创新高,全球产出缺口的存在,加上全球工资水平的上升致使生产成本进一步增大,综合这些因素共同助推了全球通货膨胀率的不断攀升。经过对1971年到2012年全球通货膨胀的波动特征分析,造成全球通货膨胀的主要原因有美国因素、科技进步、石油及大宗商品价格、货币政策的变化以及反通货膨胀制度的创新等,并发现发达经济体与新兴经济体通货膨胀波动特征既有一致性又有差异性。新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线强调了名义工资粘性、迟滞的价格调整和非完全竞争在理论中的作用,将微观经济学理论应用到宏观经济研究,更好的解释了社会经济现象。以新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线为基础,经过理论推导,将全球工资水平、全球经济增长、全球货币供给、美元汇率和国际资源品价格五个造成全球通货膨胀的驱动因素纳入到理论模型中来,采用状态空间模型对数据进行处理,得出了全球货币供给的增加是推动通货膨胀的持续显著因素。全球通货膨胀同时对我国经济产生了冲击效应,将中国经济增长率和人民币汇率纳入VAR模型中,通过分析得出全球通货膨胀对我国经济增长有持续的负影响,并对人民币汇率有持续的升值压力。在以上分析的基础上,通过借鉴发达经济体面对全球通货膨胀采取措施的经验,并结合我国实际,对我国面对全球通货膨胀所要采取的措施提出了建议。
[Abstract]:After the global financial crisis, in order to stimulate the recovery of their own economies, countries around the world have implemented loose monetary policies one after another, especially in developed economies such as the United States and Japan, which have carried out several rounds of quantitative easing policies. A lot of liquidity has been injected into the market; in addition, the dollar index is falling, commodity prices are hitting new highs, and there is a global output gap, combined with rising global wages, leading to further increases in production costs. The combination of these factors contributed to the rising global inflation rate. After analyzing the fluctuating characteristics of global inflation from 1971 to 2012, the main causes of global inflation are American factors, advances in science and technology, oil and commodity prices, changes in monetary policy, and innovation in anti-inflation regimes. It is also found that the characteristics of inflation fluctuations in developed and emerging economies are both consistent and different. The new Keynesian Phillips curve emphasizes the role of nominal wage stickiness, sluggish price adjustment and incomplete competition in the theory. The microeconomic theory is applied to the macroeconomic research to better explain the social and economic phenomena. Based on the new Keynesian Phillips curve, through theoretical derivation, the global wage level, global economic growth, global money supply, The five driving factors of global inflation caused by the exchange rate of US dollar and the price of international resource goods are incorporated into the theoretical model, and the data are processed by the state space model. It is concluded that the increase in global money supply is a significant and persistent factor driving inflation. Global inflation has an impact on China's economy at the same time. By integrating Chinese economic growth rate and RMB exchange rate into the VAR model, it is concluded that global inflation has a sustained negative impact on China's economic growth. And the RMB exchange rate has continued appreciation pressure. On the basis of the above analysis, by drawing lessons from the experience of developed economies in taking measures against global inflation and combining with the reality of our country, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the measures to be taken by our country in the face of global inflation.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F821.5;F124

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