鄱阳湖生态经济区三次产业与碳排放关系及碳排放影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 02:39

本文选题：二氧化碳排放 + 产业结构　；参考：《南昌大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着气候变化及其所造成的各种生态危机受到世界的广泛关注,低碳经济已成为全球各国经济发展的大趋向。鄱阳湖生态经济区是生态环境与经济社会协调发展、人与自然和谐统一的生态经济示范区和低碳经济先行区,肩负着保护“一湖清水”和引领地区经济社会发展的双重使命。“生态经济区”的概念决定了其发展方向,即必须以生态文明理念为指导,走新型产业化发展之路,大力发展生态产业。生态经济与低碳经济在本质上是一样的,都要求资源高效利用和节能减排。经济发展最重要的两面就是经济总量和结构,任何一个地区经济的发展都包含着经济总量的扩张和结构的优化升级,产业结构特别是三次产业的比例关系不仅支撑着当前经济的增长,还决定着经济的长远发展和经济增长对社会及环境的影响。因此要优化鄱阳湖生态经济区产业结构,使经济社会与生态环境平衡发展,对区域三次产业与碳排放关系的研究就显得意义重大。同时作为一个新兴的生态经济区,鄱阳湖生态经济区的碳排放研究还处于起步阶段,为了进一步研究碳排放的影响因素,促进鄱阳湖生态经济区向生态和低碳的方向长远发展,对生态经济区碳排放影响因素的进一步研究也是至关重要的。本文以碳排放理论为依据,对鄱阳湖生态经济区碳排放进行了计算和分析,然后采用灰色关联分析方法分析了生态经济区三次产业与碳排放的关联关系,为区域产业结构的优化及碳减排提供理论参考。为了进一步研究碳排放的其他影响因素,又采用对数平均权重迪氏(LMDI)分解法建立了鄱阳湖生态经济区碳排放因素分解模型,分析了经济发展因素、能源结构因素、区域产值分布因素及人口规模因素对碳排放的影响。实证研究结果显示：鄱阳湖生态经济区三次产业增加值对碳排放的影响程度依照关联度排序为,第二产业、第三产业、第一产业。其中工业增加值对碳排放的影响程度也很大,超过了第三产业和第一产业,从优化产业结构以及提高第二产业能源效率两方面着手对降低二氧化碳排放将起到较为明显的作用。对鄱阳湖生态经济区碳排放分解分析发现,碳排放的最大促进因素是经济发展因素,最大抑制因素是能源强度因素。对碳排放增长起到促进作用的因素有：经济发展因素、人口规模因素、能源结构因素、区域产值分布因素；对碳排放增长起到抑制作用的因素只有能源强度因素。由此根据各因素对碳排放的不同影响情况针对性地提出减排对策。最后依据上述实证分析,结合鄱阳湖生态经济区社会经济现状,提出建设鄱阳湖生态经济区低碳发展的对策建议。
[Abstract]:With the climate change and all kinds of ecological crisis caused by it, the low carbon economy has become the trend of global economic development. Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone is a harmonious eco-economic demonstration area with harmonious development of ecological environment and economy and society. Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone shoulders the dual mission of protecting "clear water from one lake" and leading the economic and social development of the region. The concept of "ecological economic zone" determines its development direction, that is, it must be guided by the concept of ecological civilization, take the new road of industrialization development, and vigorously develop ecological industry. Ecological economy and low-carbon economy are essentially the same, both require efficient use of resources and energy conservation and emission reduction. The two most important aspects of economic development are the gross economic volume and the structure. The economic development of any region involves the expansion of the total economic output and the optimization and upgrading of the structure. The industrial structure, especially the proportion of the three industries, not only supports the current economic growth, but also determines the long-term development of the economy and the impact of economic growth on the society and the environment. Therefore, to optimize the industrial structure of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone and balance the development of economy, society and ecological environment, it is of great significance to study the relationship between regional three industries and carbon emissions. At the same time, as a new ecological economic zone, the study of carbon emissions in Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone is still in its infancy. In order to further study the influencing factors of carbon emissions and promote the long-term development of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone in the direction of ecology and low carbon, It is also important to further study the influencing factors of carbon emissions in ecological economic zones. Based on the theory of carbon emission, this paper calculates and analyzes the carbon emissions of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone, and then analyzes the relationship between the three industries of the ecological economic zone and carbon emissions by using the grey correlation analysis method. It provides a theoretical reference for the optimization of regional industrial structure and carbon emission reduction. In order to further study the other influencing factors of carbon emissions, the decomposition model of carbon emission factors in Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone was established by using the logarithmic average weight method of LMDI decomposition, and the factors of economic development and energy structure were analyzed. The effect of regional output value distribution and population size on carbon emissions. The empirical results show that the influence of the added value of three industries on carbon emissions in Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone is in the order of the secondary industry, the tertiary industry and the primary industry according to the degree of correlation. The industrial added value has a great influence on carbon emissions, which exceeds the tertiary industry and the primary industry. It will play an obvious role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions by optimizing the industrial structure and improving the energy efficiency of the secondary industry. Based on the analysis of carbon emission decomposition in Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone, it is found that the biggest promoting factor of carbon emission is the factor of economic development, and the biggest restraining factor is the factor of energy intensity. The factors that promote the increase of carbon emissions are: economic development factors, population scale factors, energy structure factors, regional output value distribution factors, and the only factors that inhibit carbon emissions growth are energy intensity factors. Therefore, according to the different effects of various factors on carbon emissions, the countermeasures of emission reduction are put forward. Finally, according to the above empirical analysis, combined with the social and economic situation of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone, the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the low carbon development of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F205;F127

【引证文献】