吉林省城镇化发展与经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 18:14

本文选题：吉林省 + 城镇化　；参考：《税务与经济》2014年06期

【摘要】：城镇化是中国未来经济发展的重要引擎,是促进区域经济发展的重要手段,已经成为21世纪全球经济发展的主题。国内外的大量研究均证实了城镇化与经济增长之间存在着相互促进的正相关关系。吉林省正处在经济转型的关键时期,对其城镇化与经济增长的关系进行研究,有利于加快吉林省城镇化进程和促进经济发展。从1978~2013年吉林省非农人口比率和人均国内生产总值这一时间序列数据的协整分析来看,二者具有长期均衡稳定关系。格兰杰因果关系检验的结果表明吉林省城镇化发展是经济增长的格兰杰原因。利用VAR模型对吉林省2014~2020年城镇化与经济增长的水平做出预测,并建立脉冲响应函数图像考察二者的动态变动趋势,可使我们正确认识并积极稳妥地推进城镇化进程,进而促进经济增长。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is an important engine of China's future economic development and an important means to promote regional economic development. It has become the theme of global economic development in the 21st century. A large number of studies at home and abroad have confirmed the positive correlation between urbanization and economic growth. Jilin Province is in the key period of economic transformation. The study on the relationship between urbanization and economic growth is conducive to speeding up the process of urbanization and promoting economic development in Jilin Province. Based on the cointegration analysis of the time series data of non-agricultural population ratio and GDP per capita in Jilin Province from 1978 to 2013, it can be seen that they have a long-term equilibrium and stability relationship. The result of Granger causality test shows that the development of urbanization in Jilin Province is the Granger cause of economic growth. Using VAR model to predict the level of urbanization and economic growth in Jilin Province in 2014-2020, and to establish a pulse response function image to study the dynamic trends of the two, we can correctly understand and actively and steadily promote the urbanization process. In turn, promote economic growth.
【作者单位】：吉林财经大学经济学院;
【基金】：吉林省教育厅“十一五”社会科学研究项目“吉林省‘十二五’促进消费增长问题研究”(项目编号:吉教科文合字[2010]第405号);吉林省教育厅“十二五”社会科学研究项目“加快吉林省特殊困难群体救助体系建设研究”(项目编号:吉教科文合字[2014]第134号) 吉林省社会科学基金项目“马克思主义经济学的贫困理论及其在当代的发展”(项目编号:2010M05)
【分类号】：F299.21;F124.1

【参考文献】