技术进步对碳减排作用路径的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 19:08

本文选题：技术进步 + 碳减排　；参考：《北京工业大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：大力发展低碳经济已经成为世界各国减缓温室气体排放的重要手段。而低碳技术是低碳经济发展模式的核心，技术进步是推动低碳经济发展的根本条件，可见，低碳技术是我国实现经济的低碳化、可持续化发展的必然选择。基于此认识，本文深入研究了我国低碳经济发展现状以及技术进步、碳排放量、能源效率测算过程中变量选择与测算方法选择等一系列问题。首先对国内外关于本研究主题的成果和结论进行综述分析，提出本研究的思路和内容。同时对本文研究的关键点与理论进行了界定与阐述，对技术进步、碳生产率及能源效率的含义与测算方法进行界定与总结，更重要的是从理论上分析了技术进步对我国碳排放的作用机制，构建了本文的研究框架。其次，在对技术进步与碳生产率界定的基础上，利用状态空间模型对我国的技术进步进行测算，研究我国的技术进步水平状况；利用排污系数法对我国工业能源碳排放量进行测算，并计算出我国的碳生产率。然后对技术进步与碳排放量、碳生产率的关系进行实证分析，一方面通过灰色关系系统模型分析技术进步与碳生产率的关联程度，总体上把握技术进步与碳生产率的密切联系。另一方面，通过时间序列的各种检验方法对技术进步与碳生产率之间的动态关系进行检验，以揭示二者之间的影响关系。再次，技术进步对能源效率具有正向改善作用和回弹效应，这种作用效应是降低碳减排的重要手段。本文认为技术进步对能源效率的影响是降低碳减排的间接作用途径。为了能够较为科学地对技术进步与能源效率之间的关系进行分析，本文首先基于DEA模型对我国的技术进步水平及能源效率状况进行测评，并应用ARDL模型和C-D生产函数分析了技术进步对能源效率的正向改善作用和回弹效应。最后，在强调技术进步对于提高能源效率与降低碳排放量重要性的基础上，提出了提高我国技术进步、发展低碳经济的三条应对措施，分别为：高度重视碳回收与储藏技术的研发与应用，重点关注节能技术的研发与应用，密切关注清洁能源技术进步的国际动向，同时积极参与清洁能源技术的研发，，注重清洁能源研发人才的储备与培训。
[Abstract]:The development of low-carbon economy has become an important means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The low carbon technology is the core of the low carbon economy development mode, and the technological progress is the basic condition to promote the low carbon economy development. Therefore, the low carbon technology is the inevitable choice to realize the low carbonization and sustainable development of the economy in our country. Based on this understanding, the present situation of low-carbon economy in China and a series of problems, such as technological progress, carbon emissions, variable selection and measurement method selection in the process of energy efficiency measurement, are studied in this paper. Firstly, the research results and conclusions at home and abroad are summarized and analyzed, and the ideas and contents of this study are put forward. At the same time, the key points and theories of this paper are defined and expounded, and the meaning and measurement methods of technological progress, carbon productivity and energy efficiency are defined and summarized. More importantly, the paper theoretically analyzes the mechanism of technology progress on carbon emissions in China, and constructs the research framework of this paper. Secondly, based on the definition of technological progress and carbon productivity, the state space model is used to measure the technological progress in China, and the status of technological progress in China is studied. The emission of carbon from industrial energy in China is measured by the method of emission coefficient, and the carbon productivity of our country is calculated. Then the relationship between technological progress and carbon emissions and carbon productivity is empirically analyzed. On the one hand, the relationship between technological progress and carbon productivity is analyzed by grey relational system model, and the close relationship between technological progress and carbon productivity is generally grasped. On the other hand, the dynamic relationship between technological progress and carbon productivity is tested by various test methods of time series to reveal the relationship between them. Thirdly, technological progress has positive improvement and springback effect on energy efficiency, which is an important means to reduce carbon emission reduction. This paper argues that the impact of technological progress on energy efficiency is an indirect way to reduce carbon emission reduction. In order to scientifically analyze the relationship between technological progress and energy efficiency, this paper firstly evaluates the level of technological progress and energy efficiency based on DEA model. ARDL model and C-D production function are used to analyze the forward improvement and springback effect of technological progress on energy efficiency. Finally, on the basis of emphasizing the importance of technological progress in improving energy efficiency and reducing carbon emissions, three measures to improve China's technological progress and develop a low-carbon economy are put forward. They are: attach great importance to the research and application of carbon recovery and storage technology, focus on the research and application of energy-saving technology, pay close attention to the international trend of clean energy technology progress, and actively participate in the research and development of clean energy technology, Pay attention to the reserve and training of clean energy R & D talents.
【学位授予单位】：北京工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.3;F205

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