习惯、收入和股市财富对我国城镇居民消费的影响

发布时间：2018-05-15 22:09

本文选题：消费支出 + 消费习惯　；参考：《吉林大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：投资、消费和出口是拉动经济增长的三大重要原因，过去三十余年中国的经济增长主要依靠投资需求和进出口贸易的拉动，而消费需求相对不足。从西方发达国家的经济发展历程来看，一个成熟而稳定的经济体制必然遵循消费驱动型为主体的经济发展模式。我国目前的经济发展现状是消费增长背离了经济增长的轨道，同时伴随着高投资率和高储蓄的现象。消费问题既可以从微观层面的消费行为角度进行度量，也可以从宏观层面来解读消费对于国内生产总值的重要影响。收入的高低是影响消费行为的先决条件，我国现有的收入分配体制还不健全，不同收入群体、不同区域间的城镇居民年均可支配收入有着明显的差异，，且差距在逐年拉大。本文以股市为切入点，来研究收入冲击对消费的影响，同时将消费习惯进行了量化。本文正文结构共分四个主要部分，第一章是绪论，系统的介绍了本文的研究背景和意义。揭示了在当前经济形势下，研究消费习惯、收入冲击同股市财富之间相关性的重要意义，真正可持续的经济增长方式必须是以具有稳定消费需求的经济市场作为依托的。同时对研究思路和方法进行了阐述，总结了文章的创新和不足之处。文章的第二部分是对国内外研究成果的总结和归纳，国外的研究成果经历了理论基础完善向实证检验技术成熟的顺利过渡。而国内相关的研究虽然起步较晚，但也依据我国经济市场的相关特点进行了调整和创新，取得了一定的突破。第三章是对两大经典的收入假说：生命周期假说和持久收入假说进行了回顾，并在此基础上依据我国经济发展的特殊模式和城镇居民的消费习惯对模型进行了改进，加入了对消费函数崭新视角的解读。第四章是最重要的实证检验部分，本文基于宏观经济指标分别用两种方法对股市基本收益和泡沫进行了估计，在此基础上建立系数矩阵，加入虚拟变量对截面数据进行回归计算。得到了消费习惯、收入和股市财富变动的趋势结果，为后续结论的总结和相关政策建议提供了重要依据。最后是本文的结论和政策建议部分，在对实证结果进行总结和分析后本文得出以一下几点重要结论：1、收入与消费显著相关，拉动消费需求的前提是收入的持续增长；2、当期消费与上期消费微弱相关，消费习惯在一定程度上能够的得到延续；3、股市的波动也会对消费支出意向产生一定影响。在此基础上本文也从收入分配改革、社会保障体系的建设等方面提出了相应的意见建议。
[Abstract]:Investment, consumption and export are the three important reasons to stimulate economic growth. In the past three decades, China's economic growth mainly depends on the investment demand and import and export trade, but the consumption demand is relatively insufficient. From the view of the economic development course of the western developed countries, a mature and stable economic system must follow the consumption-driven economic development model. The current situation of economic development in China is that consumption growth deviates from the track of economic growth, accompanied by the phenomenon of high investment rate and high savings. Consumption problem can be measured not only from the micro level of consumption behavior, but also from the macro level to interpret the important impact of consumption on GDP. The income level is the precondition to affect the consumption behavior. The existing income distribution system in China is not perfect. The average annual disposable income of urban residents in different income groups and different regions is obviously different, and the gap is widening year by year. This paper takes the stock market as the starting point to study the impact of income shock on consumption and quantifies consumption habits. The main body of this paper is divided into four main parts. The first chapter is the introduction, systematically introduces the research background and significance of this paper. This paper reveals the significance of studying the correlation between consumption habits, income shocks and stock market wealth under the current economic situation. A truly sustainable economic growth pattern must be based on an economic market with stable consumption demand. At the same time, the research ideas and methods are expounded, and the innovation and shortcomings of the article are summarized. The second part is the summary and induction of the domestic and foreign research results. The foreign research results have experienced a smooth transition from the theoretical foundation to the mature empirical testing technology. Although the domestic related research started relatively late, it also adjusted and innovated according to the relevant characteristics of our country's economic market, and made a certain breakthrough. The third chapter reviews two classical income hypotheses: life cycle hypothesis and persistent income hypothesis, and improves the model according to the special pattern of economic development in China and the consumption habits of urban residents. Added to the consumption function of the new perspective of interpretation. The fourth chapter is the most important part of empirical test. Based on the macroeconomic indicators, this paper estimates the basic returns and bubbles of the stock market using two methods, and then establishes the coefficient matrix. A virtual variable is added to calculate the cross section data. The trend results of consumption habits, income and stock market wealth changes are obtained, which provides an important basis for the summary of subsequent conclusions and related policy recommendations. Finally, it is the conclusion and policy suggestion part of this paper. After summarizing and analyzing the empirical results, this paper draws the following important conclusion: 1, income and consumption are significantly related. The premise of stimulating consumption demand is the sustained growth of income, the current consumption is weak correlation with the previous consumption, the consumption habits can be continued to a certain extent, and the fluctuation of the stock market will also have a certain impact on the consumption expenditure intention. On this basis, this paper also puts forward the corresponding suggestions from the aspects of income distribution reform and the construction of social security system.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1;F124.7;F832.51;F224

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