论城镇化是否一定能够促进经济增长——基于19国面板VAR模型的实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-17 21:45

本文选题：城市化 + 经济增长　；参考：《上海经济研究》2014年02期

【摘要】：城市化是经济发展的必经过程,但城市化一定能够促进经济增长吗?本文选取战后城市化水平快速发展的19个国家建立面板数据模型,通过协整检验、Granger因果检验和面板向量自回归模型探讨城市化与经济增长的相关关系。研究发现:二者存在长期稳定关系,经济增长是城市化水平提高的原因,但城市化并不是经济增长的原因;二者呈现弱正相关,相互解释程度极低。本文认为单纯将城市化作为政策工具用以推动经济增长,很难实现。一者,借鉴拉美地区发展中国家经验,与经济发展水平不匹配的城市化使经济发展陷入困境的风险极大;二者,发达国家往往收入差距小,经济发展主要依靠技术进步和资本积累,城市化更多是经济发展的一种必然结果。最后,给出我国在发展新型城镇化过程中的相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is a necessary process of economic development, but can urbanization promote economic growth? In this paper, a panel data model is established in 19 countries with rapid development of postwar urbanization. The correlation between urbanization and economic growth is discussed through co-integration test, Granger causality test and panel vector autoregressive model. It is found that there is a long-term stable relationship between the two, and economic growth is the reason for the improvement of urbanization level, but urbanization is not the cause of economic growth, and the two are weakly positive correlation, and the degree of mutual explanation is very low. This paper argues that it is difficult to use urbanization as a policy tool to promote economic growth. For one thing, drawing lessons from the experiences of developing countries in Latin America, urbanization, which does not match the level of economic development, poses a great risk that economic development will fall into difficulties; the income gap between the developed countries and the developed countries is often small. Economic development mainly depends on technological progress and capital accumulation. Urbanization is an inevitable result of economic development. Finally, the paper gives some policy suggestions in the process of developing new urbanization.
【作者单位】：华东师范大学商学院;
【分类号】：F299.1;F112;F224

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