浙江省宏观税负与经济增长的理论分析和实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 21:48

本文选题：经济增长 + 税收负担　；参考：《浙江财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：税收负担与经济增长的相互关系问题一直是学术界关注的焦点。国外学者对两者的关系进行了较为深入的理论分析和实证探讨。国内学者在20世纪90年代以前，大多数进行的是两者的理论研究。近十年来，越来越多我国学者开始运用国外先进的计量经济分析方法，对税收负担和经济增长的关系问题进行了各个层面的实证研究，其运用的方法各异，得出的结论也各不相同，但是学者们的研究成果基本都是对全国的税收负担与经济增长关系进行分析，而对地区的税收负担与经济增长之间的相关关系则分析的非常少。本文试图从新的视角以浙江省这个省份作为研究主题，运用先进的VAR分析技术具体分析浙江省的税收负担与经济增长的实证关系。本文采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的的方法，更加注重实证研究的方法，在对浙江省税收负担现状的分析基础上，通过对浙江省税收负担与经济增长的整体分析得出：同全国税负水平来比较，是远远低于全国水平，以2011年的数据为例，全国的宏观税负水平到达了18.98%，而浙江省的税负水平只有9.13%，低于全国9.85个百分点，浙江省的税收负担水平与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系，两者之间存在一定的负相关，并且相互影响。利用VAR模型对浙江省税收负担对经济增长的分析可知：中口径宏观税负(LNTAX)对其自身的一个标准差冲击做出的反应增加值约为0.0667,到第三期达到最大约为0.0908，第三期后逐渐下降,到第14期趋近于0；中口径宏观税负(LNTAX)对财政支出(LNBO)的反应第一期为0，而后逐渐呈现负响应，到第六期达到最小为-0.0469，而后逐渐趋近与0；中口径宏观税负(LNTAX)对GDP的一个标准差冲击影响在前7期处于上升态势，而后逐渐趋近0。中口径宏观税负(LNTAX)预测方差由LNTAX扰动引起的比重为99.68%，由LNBO引起的扰动为0.3212%，由LNGDP引起的扰动为0.0024%，随着时间的推移，由其他两个因素引起的扰动的比重不断加大，但是到第十四期之前是不稳定的，十四期之后基本稳定。针对上述实证结论，本文提出浙江省经济还存在的一些问题，指出浙江省经济存在的不足，提出合理的政策建议和改进措施：合理调配各个税种之间的比重，，强化税收征管的力度，减少税源的流失；推进浙江省的非税收收入的改革，尽量使非税收收入纳入税收收入的管理范围之中，进行集中的管理，减少对非税收收入管理的成本；加强浙江省的税收管理的信息化，采用无纸化的高科技征收管理，减少人力资源成本，提高管理效益；促进浙江省地区的综合均衡的发展，使得浙江省经济又好又快发展，提高经济发展水平。
[Abstract]:The relationship between tax burden and economic growth has always been the focus of academic attention. Foreign scholars have made a deep theoretical analysis and empirical study on the relationship between the two. Before the 1990's, most of the domestic scholars carried out the theoretical research of both. In the past ten years, more and more Chinese scholars began to use advanced econometric analysis methods from abroad, and conducted empirical research on the relationship between tax burden and economic growth at various levels. The conclusions are also different, but the research results of scholars are basically to analyze the relationship between tax burden and economic growth in the whole country, but the correlation between tax burden and economic growth in the region is very little. This paper attempts to analyze the empirical relationship between tax burden and economic growth in Zhejiang Province from a new perspective by using advanced VAR analysis technology. This paper adopts the method of combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, and pays more attention to the method of empirical research, based on the analysis of the present situation of tax burden in Zhejiang Province. Through the overall analysis of the tax burden and economic growth in Zhejiang Province, it is concluded that compared with the national tax burden level, it is far lower than the national level. Take the data from 2011 as an example. The national macro tax burden level has reached 18.98 percent, while the tax burden level in Zhejiang Province is only 9.13 percent, which is lower than the whole country's 9.85 percent. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the tax burden level in Zhejiang Province and economic growth, and there is a certain negative correlation between the two levels. And interact with each other. The analysis of the tax burden on economic growth in Zhejiang Province by using VAR model shows that the added value of the response to a standard deviation shock made by the medium caliber macro tax burden is about 0.0667, and the maximum value is about 0.0908 in the third period, and then decreases gradually after the third period. By the 14th period, the response of the medium caliber macro tax burden LNTAX to the fiscal expenditure was zero in the first phase, and then the response was negative gradually. By the sixth period, the minimum was -0.0469, and then approached to 0. The impact of a standard deviation shock on GDP was in an upward trend in the first seven periods, but gradually approaching 0. 5% in the first seven periods. The proportion of prediction variance caused by LNTAX disturbance is 99.68, the disturbance caused by LNBO is 0.3212and the disturbance caused by LNGDP is 0.0024.The proportion of disturbance caused by the other two factors has been increasing over time. But before the fourteenth is unstable, after the fourteenth is basically stable. In view of the above empirical conclusions, this paper points out some problems existing in the economy of Zhejiang Province, points out the shortcomings of the economy of Zhejiang Province, and puts forward some reasonable policy suggestions and improvement measures: rational allocation of the proportion of various taxes, To strengthen the tax collection and management, to reduce the loss of tax sources, to promote the reform of non-tax revenue in Zhejiang Province, to bring non-tax revenue into the management scope of tax revenue as far as possible, to carry out centralized management, and to reduce the cost of non-tax revenue management; To strengthen the informationization of tax management in Zhejiang Province, to adopt paperless hi-tech collection and management, to reduce the cost of human resources, and to improve the efficiency of management; to promote the comprehensive and balanced development of Zhejiang Province; and to make the economy of Zhejiang Province develop well and rapidly. We will raise the level of economic development.
【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F812.42;F124.1;F224

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