基于系统动力学的碳排放系统仿真与优化方案研究

发布时间：2018-05-20 06:53

本文选题：低碳经济 + 碳排放　；参考：《华北电力大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：目前，为应对全球气候变化与资源环境相关问题，世界各国纷纷把发展低碳经济作为自己国家的基本发展战略之一。论文选择国家首批低碳试点城市保定市为研究对象，建立第一产业碳排放仿真模型，研究碳排放的发展趋势和优化方案，具有重要的现实意义和理论价值。在大量查阅国内外碳排放量估算方法和模型的相关文献基础上，分析了现有估算方法和模型的局限性。选择保定市第一产业作为碳排放系统研究对象，分析了该系统的排碳现状及碳排放影响因素，，基于碳源和碳汇两个角度构建了相应指标体系和计量模型，测算了该系统的碳排放总量；基于系统动力学理论思想，构建了碳排放系统的动力学模型，绘制了系统的因果关系图和流程图，通过对模型进行测试和检验，确认系统模型的有效性，并运用模型模拟了保定市碳排放的动态变化趋势；基于节能、低碳和强化低碳三种情景，通过调整变量参数，设计了三种方案对保定市第一产业碳排放趋势进行了的情景模拟。通过模型预测及比较分析可得，强化低碳在理论上是较为理想的发展模式，保定市的低碳城市建设应该积极向强化低碳情景靠拢。最后，针对保定市低碳农业、低碳林业和低碳畜牧业的发展分别给出了相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:At present, in order to deal with the problems related to global climate change and resources and environment, countries all over the world regard the development of low-carbon economy as one of their basic development strategies. In this paper, the first batch of low-carbon pilot city Baoding City is selected as the research object, and the simulation model of carbon emissions from primary industry is established. It has important practical significance and theoretical value to study the development trend and optimization scheme of carbon emissions. Based on a large number of references on carbon emission estimation methods and models at home and abroad, the limitations of existing methods and models are analyzed. This paper selects the primary industry of Baoding as the research object of carbon emission system, analyzes the current situation of carbon emission and the influencing factors of carbon emission, and constructs the corresponding index system and measurement model based on the two angles of carbon source and carbon sink. Based on the theory of system dynamics, the dynamic model of carbon emission system is constructed, and the causality diagram and flowchart of the system are drawn, and the model is tested and tested. Confirm the validity of the system model, and use the model to simulate the dynamic change trend of the carbon emission in Baoding city, based on the three scenarios of energy saving, low carbon and enhanced low carbon, by adjusting the variable parameters, Three schemes were designed to simulate the carbon emission trend of primary industry in Baoding City. Through model prediction and comparative analysis, it can be concluded that strengthening low carbon is an ideal development model in theory, and the construction of low carbon city in Baoding should be actively closer to the situation of strengthening low carbon. Finally, the development of low carbon agriculture, low carbon forestry and low carbon animal husbandry in Baoding City were put forward.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：N941.3;F124.5

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