我国消费率的再测算及其与经济增长的关系研究

发布时间：2018-05-21 19:41

本文选题：消费率 + MIMIC模型　；参考：《浙江工商大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：经济资源会在消费和各种类型的投资之间进行划分,其中用以衡量消费占当期国内生产总值比例的消费率对国民经济增长具有重要意义。近几年来我国也一直强调扩大内需,提振消费,不过从统计年鉴数据来看,我国近年来的最终消费率有连续下降趋向,且远低于全球平均水平,与典型发展中国家相比也明显偏低。而如今随着人们生活水平的提高,消费结构的不断升级,统计体系不再能正确涵盖人们消费的方方面面,持续下降的消费率数据不能反映真实的消费情况。本文从宏观经济数据入手,利用结构方程模型中的MIMIC模型对我国消费率进行再测算,力图得到相对真实的数据。同时就测算数据分析其与我国经济增长的关系。第一章首先介绍了消费率测算的背景与意义,给出研究内容和研究框架,并交代了本文的研究思路和内容。第二章主要对消费理论进行梳理阐述,包括绝对收入假说等西方经典消费理论和基于我国国情的消费理论应用,以及对官方消费率的变化分析。第三章是利用MIMIC模型对消费率进行测算研究。先从国民核算账户分析影响消费的因素,再选取合适的外生和内生变量,最后得到我国消费率的测算数据。第四章就消费与经济增长的关系展开分析,通过计量经济学的分析方法,利用协整理论和误差修正模型,分析消费对GDP的贡献度,及其与经济增长的关系。最后第五章总结全文,给出结论和政策建议。本文测算的消费率数据整体上要高于统计年鉴数据,近几年虽同样呈下降趋势,但下降幅度更小,速度更慢。协整分析表明最终消费与经济增长存在较强的相关关系,且存在长期的均衡关系。相比统计数据,估算消费对经济增长的作用更弱。短期内,当期经济增长与当期消费、上一期经济增长正相关,与上一期消费负相关。
[Abstract]:Economic resources are divided between consumption and various types of investment, and it is of great significance to measure the proportion of consumption to GDP in the current period for the growth of national economy. In recent years, China has also emphasized expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption. However, from the statistical yearbook data, the final consumption rate of our country has a continuous downward trend in recent years, and is far below the global average. It is also significantly lower than the typical developing countries. Nowadays, with the improvement of people's living standard and the upgrading of consumption structure, the statistical system can no longer cover all aspects of people's consumption correctly, and the declining consumption rate data can not reflect the true consumption situation. This paper starts with the macroeconomic data and uses the MIMIC model in the structural equation model to recalculate the consumption rate of our country in order to obtain relatively real data. At the same time, the relationship between the measurement data and China's economic growth is analyzed. The first chapter introduces the background and significance of consumption rate measurement, gives the research content and research framework, and explains the research ideas and contents of this paper. The second chapter mainly discusses the consumption theory, including the absolute income hypothesis and the application of the consumption theory based on the situation of our country, as well as the analysis of the change of the official consumption rate. The third chapter is the use of MIMIC model to measure the consumption rate. The factors affecting consumption are analyzed from the national accounts, and then the appropriate exogenous and endogenous variables are selected. Finally, the data of consumption rate in China are obtained. The fourth chapter analyzes the relationship between consumption and economic growth. By means of econometric analysis, the contribution of consumption to GDP and the relationship between consumption and economic growth are analyzed by using cointegration theory and error correction model. Finally, the fifth chapter summarizes the full text, gives the conclusions and policy recommendations. The data of consumption rate calculated in this paper is higher than that of the statistical yearbook on the whole. Although it also shows a downward trend in recent years, the decline is smaller and the speed is slower. Cointegration analysis shows that there is a strong correlation between final consumption and economic growth and a long-term equilibrium relationship. Estimates of consumption have a weaker effect on economic growth than statistics. In the short term, current economic growth is positively correlated with current consumption, and negatively correlated with previous period consumption.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1;F124.1;F224

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