山东省城镇化发展与产业结构演变的互动关系研究

发布时间：2018-06-03 15:52

本文选题：城镇化 + 产业结构　；参考：《山东大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：城镇化与产业结构升级在区域经济发展过程中相伴相随,是区域经济发展与进步的重要体现。一方面,产业结构的有序演变为城镇化带来发展动力、模式以及地域形态等方面的变化,从而推动城镇化的发展；另一方面,城镇化的发展,也会影响区域内资源要素的供给、需求和的空间配置,并以此作用于产业的升级演变。改革开放以来山东省城镇化进程不断加快,城镇化率由1978年的13.6%上升到2011年的50.9%。同时产业结构不断优化升级,2011年非农就业比重达到了65.9%；产值占GDP比重方面,呈现二三一的格局。但是作为GDP排名全国第三的经济大省,山东省城镇化水平相对落后,2011年城镇化率仅位于全国第15位,并低于全国平均值。产业结构方面,第一产业就业比重仍然最高,第三产业发展相对落后,制约了山东省经济的持续健康发展。本文首先对城镇化与产业发展相关文献做了系统的梳理,然后对改革开放以来山东省城镇化和产业结构演变的趋势做了归纳研究,并分析了各个阶段的特征和原因。在此基础上,说明了城镇化发展和产业结构演变的相关性,以及两者在发展过程中存在的偏差。接下来,本文详细分析了产业结构对城镇化发展的影响,说明了第一产业是城镇化发展的物质基础,第二产业是拉动城镇化的主要力量,第三产业是城镇化发展的后续力量。同时,深入到各个产业内部,探讨城镇化发展对于各个产业的生产资源、产品结构和内部行业结构产生的影响。再次,选取山东省1978-2011年城镇化率和第二三产业产值比重作为指标,通过协整分析与误差修正模型等计量方法,从实证角度分析了山东省城市化发展与产业结构调整之间的长期作用机制,并进一步得到了三者的因果关系。实证结果表明,第三产业对城市化拉动作用优于第二产业,三者存在长期稳定的均衡关系；格兰杰因果检验表明城镇化对产业发展有重要作用,但是产业结构演变对城镇化进程的推动并未得到支持。最后,依据研究结果,本文提出了发展多样化的第三产业、提升制造业水平、改革城乡户籍制度、城镇化的环境保护与产业结构共同发展、以及发挥龙头城市作用的建议。以往的研究对于城镇化与产业结构演变之间相互作用的分析相对宏观和笼统,并没有结合全国或者某个具体地区说明该作用的具体表现。本文结合了山东省的实际情况,充分利用统计数据和地市的实际案例,具体说明两者之间的作用关系；尤其是延伸到各产业的内部,阐述城镇化发展对于产业内部结构产生的影响。本文的研究对山东省推进城镇化发展、城市群建设和产业结构调整具有一定的指导意义。同时,鉴于山东省城镇化率与全国平均水平基本相当,研究山东省城镇化与产业结构之间的关系,对于全国具有借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:Urbanization and upgrading of industrial structure accompany with each other in the process of regional economic development, which is an important embodiment of regional economic development and progress. On the one hand, the orderly evolution of the industrial structure has brought about changes in the development power, mode and regional form of urbanization, thus promoting the development of urbanization; on the other hand, the development of urbanization will also affect the supply of resources elements in the region. Demand and space allocation, and this role in the upgrading of the industry evolution. Since the reform and opening up, the process of urbanization in Shandong Province has been accelerating, the urbanization rate has increased from 13.6% in 1978 to 50.9% in 2011. At the same time, the industrial structure is continuously optimized and upgraded, and the proportion of non-agricultural employment reached 65.9 in 2011, and the ratio of output value to GDP presents a pattern of two and three. However, as the third largest economic province in China with GDP, the urbanization level of Shandong Province is relatively backward. In 2011, the urbanization rate was ranked 15th in the country and lower than the national average. In terms of industrial structure, the proportion of employment in primary industry is still the highest, and the development of tertiary industry is relatively backward, which restricts the sustainable and healthy development of economy in Shandong Province. In this paper, the related literature on urbanization and industrial development is systematically combed, and then the trend of urbanization and industrial structure evolution in Shandong Province since the reform and opening up is summarized and studied, and the characteristics and reasons of each stage are analyzed. On this basis, the correlation between urbanization development and industrial structure evolution, and the deviation between them in the process of development are explained. Then, this paper analyzes the impact of industrial structure on urbanization development in detail, explains that the primary industry is the material basis of urbanization development, the secondary industry is the main force to promote urbanization, and the tertiary industry is the follow-up force of urbanization development. At the same time, the influence of the development of urbanization on the production resources, product structure and internal industry structure of each industry is discussed. Thirdly, selecting the urbanization rate and the proportion of the second and third industry output value of Shandong Province from 1978 to 2011 as indicators, through cointegration analysis and error correction model and other measurement methods, This paper analyzes the long-term action mechanism between urbanization development and industrial structure adjustment in Shandong Province from an empirical point of view, and further obtains the causality among them. The empirical results show that the tertiary industry plays a better role than the secondary industry in promoting urbanization, and there is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship among the three industries, and the Granger causality test shows that urbanization plays an important role in the development of the industry. However, the evolution of industrial structure has not been supported in the process of urbanization. Finally, according to the results of the research, this paper puts forward some suggestions for developing diversified tertiary industry, improving the level of manufacturing industry, reforming the household registration system between urban and rural areas, developing the environmental protection of urbanization and industrial structure together, and giving play to the role of leading city. Previous studies on the interaction between urbanization and industrial structure analysis are relatively macro and general, and have not combined with the national or a specific region to explain the specific performance of the role. This paper combines the actual situation of Shandong Province, makes full use of the statistical data and the actual cases of prefectures and cities, and explains the relationship between the two, especially extending to the interior of various industries. This paper expounds the influence of urbanization development on the internal structure of industry. The research of this paper has certain guiding significance to promote the development of urbanization, urban agglomeration construction and industrial structure adjustment in Shandong Province. At the same time, in view of the fact that the urbanization rate of Shandong Province is basically equal to the national average, it is of great significance to study the relationship between urbanization and industrial structure in Shandong Province.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.2;F127

【参考文献】