美国货币政策跨国溢出效应的区域差异研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 15:16

本文选题：美国货币政策 + 跨国溢出　；参考：《浙江工商大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：货币政策的跨国溢出问题一直是国际经济学研究的热点,但从已有文献来看,无论是理论还是经验研究,关于货币政策国际传导机制及溢出效应至今尚无一个明确的判断,关于汇率制度和资本管制在应对外部货币政策冲击中的作用机制,亦无一致性结论。那么,在我国现行的对外开放政策、汇率体制和资本管制条件下,美国货币政策对我国宏观经济的传导机制及影响程度究竟如何?本文试图以现实经济数据为导向,采用区域比较的方法,通过国际比较以及本国地区的内部比较,将美国货币政策对我国宏观经济溢出效应的传导渠道和影响程度作一个全面的把握。首先,本文回顾并梳理了关于货币政策跨国溢出效应的相关文献,并对其进行简单的评析；其次,将美国货币政策变化对它国货币经济和实体经济的影响进行理论分析；然后,在理论分析的基础上,本文采用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,选取中国大陆、香港、日本三个经济体数据为分析对象,检验、比较了美国货币政策(以联邦基金利率为代表)对不同经济开放度、汇率体制及资本自由水平的国家(地区)的溢出效应差异,并且进一步检验了美国货币政策对我国东中西部地区的溢出效应差异。最后,结合实证结果,提出相应的政策建议。当前,我国的经济体制改革、人民币汇率形成机制和资本账户改革在异常复杂的国际背景下展开,本文比较分析的结果对于当前中国对外贸易政策的调整、以及如何通过合理配置汇率体制和资本账户政策有效提高我国应对外部冲击,特别是美国货币政策冲击的能力具有较强的指向性和借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:Cross-border spillover of monetary policy has always been a hot topic in international economics. However, there is no clear judgment on the international transmission mechanism and spillover effect of monetary policy, whether in theory or empirical research. There is also no consistent conclusion on the mechanism of exchange rate system and capital control in dealing with external monetary policy shocks. So, under the condition of our country's current opening policy, exchange rate system and capital control, what is the transmission mechanism and influence degree of American monetary policy to our macro-economy? This paper attempts to take the realistic economic data as the direction, adopts the regional comparison method, through the international comparison as well as the domestic region internal comparison, This paper makes a comprehensive understanding of the transmission channel and influence degree of American monetary policy to the macroeconomic spillover effect of our country. First of all, this paper reviews and combs the relevant literature on the transnational spillover effect of monetary policy, and makes a simple analysis of it. Secondly, it makes a theoretical analysis of the impact of the change of monetary policy in the United States on the monetary economy and real economy of other countries. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper adopts the structural vector autoregressive SVAR-model, selects the data of three economies, mainland China, Hong Kong and Japan, as the object of analysis. This paper compares the spillover effects of US monetary policy (represented by the federal funds rate) on countries (regions) with different economic openness, exchange rate regime and level of capital freedom. Furthermore, the spillover effects of US monetary policy on China's east, west and west regions are further examined. Finally, combined with the empirical results, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. At present, China's economic system reform, RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and capital account reform are carried out under the extremely complicated international background. And how to improve China's ability to deal with external shocks through rational allocation of exchange rate system and capital account policy, especially the impact of American monetary policy, has strong directionality and reference significance.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F827.12;F124

【参考文献】