苏、锡、常经济增长与水环境污染的关系——基于ARDL和ECM的实证分析

发布时间：2018-06-09 05:28

本文选题：误差修正模型 + 自回归分布滞后模型　；参考：《软科学》2014年01期

【摘要】：运用协整分析和误差修正模型研究了苏、锡、常城市1992~2010年经济增长与水环境污染的长期均衡与短期动态调整关系。首先运用自回归分布滞后模型中的边界检验法和Johansen协整检验法验证EKC关系的存在;然后分别运用ARDL模型和ECM模型验证经济增长与水环境污染的短期动态调整关系。研究结果表明:苏、锡、常城市部分水环境污染指标与人均GDP之间存在长期的均衡关系,模型的形式和参数有所差异,并不总是呈现EKC的倒"U"型关系;短期内人均GDP的增长对不同城市水污染指标的影响效果不同;苏、锡、常城市经济发展活动的差异对水环境质量的退化造成了不同的影响。
[Abstract]:The long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic adjustment between economic growth and water environmental pollution in Jiangsu, Tin and Changcheng cities from 1992 to 2010 are studied by using cointegration analysis and error correction model. First, the boundary test and Johansen cointegration test are used to verify the existence of EKC relation, and then the ARDL model and ECM model are used to verify the short-term dynamic adjustment relationship between economic growth and water environment pollution. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the water environmental pollution index and GDP per capita in Su, Sn and Changcheng cities, and the model is different in form and parameter, which does not always show the EKC inverted "U" type relationship. In the short term, the increase of GDP per capita has different effects on water pollution index in different cities, and the difference of economic development activities in Jiangsu, tin and Changcheng cities has different effects on the degradation of water environment quality.
【作者单位】：清华大学环境学院;
【基金】：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2008ZX07313-008)
【分类号】：X52;F127

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