粮食价格波动对农村与城镇人口福利变动的影响差异分析

发布时间：2018-06-12 03:22

本文选题：价格波动 + 福利效应　；参考：《财贸研究》2014年05期

【摘要】：采用1995—2011年粮食生产与消费的相关数据,在对粮食供需弹性以及粮食收益率估计的基础上,运用Minot福利效应模型,测算并比较分析粮食价格波动对农村居民与城镇居民福利变化的影响。结果表明:粮食价格波动的福利分配在城乡居民间是非均衡的。粮食价格波动与城镇居民福利变动具有负向作用关系,粮食生产价格平均每提高10%,城镇居民短期福利减少3.48%,长期福利减少2.99%;农村居民则由于粮食价格上涨而福利增加,即粮食价格平均每提高10%,农村居民短期福利增加5.50%,长期福利增加6.35%。粮食价格波动的收入效应与替代效应导致了城乡居民福利分配的非均衡性。粮食价格波动中的长期福利效应优于短期福利效应,且城镇居民的福利变动率大于农村居民,反映了城乡居民作为理性人对价格波动的适应性调整。因此,应建立健全城镇低收入群体的价格补贴机制、完善市场价格机制等。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of grain production and consumption from 1995 to 2011, and on the basis of estimating the elasticity of grain supply and demand and grain yield, the Minot welfare effect model is used. The effects of grain price fluctuation on the welfare of rural residents and urban residents were measured and compared. The results show that the welfare distribution of food price fluctuation is unbalanced between urban and rural residents. The fluctuation of grain prices has a negative relationship with the changes in welfare of urban residents. For every 10 per cent increase in grain production prices, the short-term welfare of urban residents decreases by 3.48, the long-term welfare decreases by 2.99, while the welfare of rural residents increases as a result of the increase in grain prices. That is to say, for every average increase of 10 grain prices, the short-term welfare of rural residents will increase by 5.50 and the long-term welfare by 6.35. The income effect and substitution effect of grain price fluctuation lead to the disequilibrium of urban and rural residents' welfare distribution. The long-term welfare effect of grain price fluctuation is better than that of short-term welfare effect, and the welfare change rate of urban residents is larger than that of rural residents, which reflects the adaptability of urban and rural residents as rational people to price fluctuations. Therefore, we should establish and perfect the price subsidy mechanism of urban low income groups and perfect the market price mechanism.
【作者单位】：河南理工大学应急管理学院;河南理工大学安全与应急管理研究中心;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“粮食价格波动的福利效应及政策调控研究——基于粮食主产区、主销区和产销平衡区视角”(12YJC790142) 河南省哲学社会科学规划项目“粮食生产核心区综合生产能力评价与提升路径研究”(2014CJJ066) 河南省教育厅人文社会科学重点项目“粮食生产技术进步有偏演进的动力机制及福利效应”(2014-zd-066)
【分类号】：F323.7;F126;F224

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