山东省外贸商品结构与产业结构关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-13 00:42

本文选题：外贸商品结构 + 产业结构　；参考：《山东财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济全球化发展进程的加深，世界各国间的经济联系不断加强。作为开放型的经济体，更深层次、更广领域的参与国际分工已成为必然。如何处理好对外贸易商品结构与产业结构的关系，对一国或地区经济的健康有序发展至关重要。同时，对于对外贸易结构和产业结构关系的探究，是国际贸易学和产业经济学两个领域的研究热点。因此，以山东省为例，对两者关系的探究具有重要的理论意义和针对性的现实意义。本文首先分别对对外贸易结构理论、产业结构理论以及两者间的互动机制进行梳理，然后对山东省外贸商品结构、产业结构的历史演进进行描述性分析，，继而在理论、现状的基础之上对两者之间的关系进行实证分析，最后得出结论，并依据结论得出相关建议。本文的主要内容包括以下部分：第一章，阐述了文章的写作背景和意义，并从外贸结构、产业结构与经济增长，外贸结构与产业结构三个方面对相关文献做了回顾。在此基础上，提出创新点：以地区为角度，探索山东省内部与外部经济的良好结合的途径。第二章，对国际贸易理论对外贸易结构的解释、产业理论的演进进行了梳理，并探索两者的互动机制。得出：两者相互作用于对方，并且受政府政策等外生因素的影响。第三章，对山东省外贸商品结构、产业结构的发展进行了描述性分析。得出：山东省外贸商品结构有了较大改善，特别是出口结构，但仍有较大发展空间。产业结构已完成由“一二三”向“二三一”的转变，逐步合理化。这为接下来的实证分析提供了现实依据。第四章，为实证分析部分，首先通过协整分析、Granger因果检验、VAR模型等实证分析对外贸商品结构与产业结构时间序列变化的关系，得出：山东省进口结构变化与产业结构变化的Granger原因是单向的，即进口结构变化是产业变化的的Granger原因，而出口结构变化与产业结构变化互为Granger原因。然后用多元回归模型分别分析对外贸商品结构对产业结构变化的影响，省内三次产业结构对外贸商品结构变化的影响。第五章，分别从政府的作用，外贸商品结构，产业结构角度总结建议。得出：结合世界经济局势，充分发挥政府的作用，加大科技资金投入，适时调整外贸结构、产业结构，使两者互动升级。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of economic globalization, the world's economic ties between countries continue to strengthen. As an open economy, deeper and wider participation in international division of labor has become inevitable. How to deal with the relationship between commodity structure and industrial structure of foreign trade is very important to the healthy and orderly development of a country or a region's economy. At the same time, the research on the relationship between foreign trade structure and industrial structure is a hot topic in the field of international trade and industrial economics. Therefore, taking Shandong Province as an example, exploring the relationship between the two has important theoretical and practical significance. This paper firstly combs the theory of foreign trade structure, the theory of industrial structure and the interaction mechanism between them, then analyzes the historical evolution of commodity structure and industrial structure in Shandong Province. On the basis of the present situation, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between the two, and draws a conclusion, and draws some relevant recommendations according to the conclusion. The main contents of this paper include the following parts: the first chapter describes the writing background and significance of the article, and from the foreign trade structure, industrial structure and economic growth, foreign trade structure and industrial structure of three aspects of the literature review. On the basis of this, the paper puts forward the innovation point: from the angle of region, it explores the way of good combination of internal and external economy in Shandong Province. The second chapter explains the structure of international trade and the evolution of industrial theory, and explores the interactive mechanism of the two. It is concluded that they interact with each other and are influenced by exogenous factors such as government policy. The third chapter analyzes the structure of foreign trade commodities and the development of industrial structure in Shandong Province. It is concluded that the structure of foreign trade commodities in Shandong Province has been greatly improved, especially the export structure, but there is still great room for development. The industrial structure has been changed from "123" to "23-1" and gradually rationalized. This provides a realistic basis for the next empirical analysis. The fourth chapter, as the empirical analysis part, firstly analyzes the relationship between the foreign trade commodity structure and the time series of industrial structure through the Granger causality test and VAR model. It is concluded that the Granger cause of the change of import structure and industrial structure of Shandong Province is one-way, that is, the change of import structure is the Granger cause of industrial change, while the change of export structure and industrial structure are mutual reasons of Granger. Then the influence of foreign trade commodity structure on industrial structure and the influence of three times industrial structure on the change of foreign trade commodity structure are analyzed by using multivariate regression model. Chapter V, respectively from the role of the government, foreign trade commodity structure, industrial structure from the perspective of summing up recommendations. According to the world economic situation, the government should give full play to the role of the government, increase the investment in science and technology, adjust the structure of foreign trade and industrial structure in good time, so as to promote the interaction between the two.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.8;F127;F279.2;F224

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