人民币汇率变动对东北地区经济发展影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-06-13 17:10

本文选题：人民币实际有效汇率 + 进出口　；参考：《吉林大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：纵观人民币汇率变化的过程我们发现2005年以前我国一直实施的是事实上盯住美元的汇率制度，直到我国贸易顺差、外汇储备不断扩大，并且国际社会上对人民币升值所施加的压力持续增加时，我国货币当局才在2005年7月21日正式宣布将对人民币汇率形成机制进行改革。从此人民币汇率步入了持续渐进的升值轨道，，虽然由于2007年美国次贷危机引发了全球的金融海啸致使人民币汇率从2008年到2010年5月这段时间内回归到了盯住美元的策略，但是当国内外经济形势产生好转时，央行在2010年6月19日宣布重启之前的人民币汇率形成机制的改革。从2002年1月到2012年6月间，人民币兑美元的汇率已经从8.27升值到了6.32左右。传统的宏观经济学理论认为：一国货币汇率升值将导致该国出口产品的相对价格上升，致使出口下降，另外由于汇率升值，进口商品价格下降导致进口上升，最终使经常账户的恶化，并进而引起一国经济紧缩。由于我国经济结构一直存在着严重依赖外需、对外贸易依存度较高的问题，2007年由美国次贷危机所引发的全球金融海啸致使我国所面临的外部环境急剧恶化，同时在此期间伴随着人民币持续的升值，我国外贸进出口额急剧下降，并且实体经济也受到了一定程度的拖累。与此同时，中国重要的区域经济体——东北地区，其进出口也受到了较大的冲击，伴随着金融危机和人民币汇率的升值，东北地区的进出口总额在2009年出现了负增长。目前，学者们对汇率波动同进出口和经济增长之间关系的研究，多集中在全国的范围和个别进出口贸易发达的省份，并没有对区域的经济体展开研究，特别是传统的老工业基地东北地区的研究则更是空白。本文从汇率波动对东北地区进出口产生何种影响并进而以怎样的传导机制影响了东北地区经济增长的思路出发，分析了在目前的外部经济环境下，我国局部区域经济所面临的机遇和挑战。在实证分析的过程中，本文先是基于1995年到2012年的数据，运用进出口方程和ECM模型对人民币汇率变动、进出口商品价格、对外贸易政策、国民收入和东北地区进出口额之间的长短期关系做了回归分析，大体得出人民币的汇率形成机制改革对东北地区的进出口贸易都产生了较大的影响。之后沿着这条路径，基于1994年到2012年间的数据，将国民收入、职工工资、价格水平、人民币实际汇率、财政支出和社会消费品零售总额带入VAR模型中，并运用脉冲响应函数分析了人民币实际有效汇率的波动会对宏观经济系统中的其它变量产生怎么样的影响。结果显示，短期内人民币实际有效汇率升值会使经济受到负面的冲击。
[Abstract]:Looking at the course of RMB exchange rate changes, we find that the exchange rate system that China implemented before 2005 was in fact pegged to the US dollar, until China's trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves continued to expand. When the pressure on RMB appreciation in the international community continued to increase, China's monetary authorities officially announced on July 21, 2005 that they would reform the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. Since then, the RMB exchange rate has been on the path of continuous and gradual appreciation, although the US sub-prime mortgage crisis triggered the global financial tsunami in 2007, which resulted in the RMB exchange rate returning to the US dollar peg during the period from 2008 to May 2010. But when economic conditions at home and abroad improved, the central bank announced on June 19, 2010, reforms to the yuan's previous exchange rate regime. Between January 2002 and June 2012, the yuan rose from 8.27 to around 6.32 against the dollar. The traditional macroeconomic theory holds that the appreciation of the exchange rate of a country's currency will lead to a rise in the relative price of the country's export products, leading to a decline in exports, and an increase in imports due to the appreciation of the exchange rate and the decline in the price of imported goods. Eventually, it worsens the current account and, in turn, compacts a country's economy. Because of the serious dependence on external demand and the high degree of dependence on foreign trade in China's economic structure, the global financial tsunami caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007 has caused a sharp deterioration of the external environment that our country is facing. At the same time, with the continuous appreciation of RMB, the import and export of China's foreign trade has declined sharply, and the real economy has been dragged down to a certain extent. At the same time, the import and export of Northeast region, an important regional economy of China, has also suffered a great impact. With the financial crisis and the appreciation of RMB exchange rate, the total import and export volume of Northeast China increased negatively in 2009. At present, scholars' studies on the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and import and export and economic growth are mostly focused on the national scope and individual provinces with developed import and export trade, and no studies have been conducted on regional economies. Especially the research of the traditional old industrial base in Northeast China is blank. From the view of the influence of exchange rate fluctuation on the import and export of Northeast China and the influence of the transmission mechanism on the economic growth in Northeast China, this paper analyzes the current external economic environment. The opportunity and challenge that our country partial area economy faces. In the process of empirical analysis, this paper first based on the data from 1995 to 2012, using the import and export equation and ECM model to the RMB exchange rate changes, import and export commodity prices, foreign trade policy, A regression analysis is made between the national income and the import and export volume in Northeast China. It is concluded that the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism has a great influence on the import and export trade in Northeast China. Then along this path, based on the data from 1994 to 2012, bring into the VAR model national income, employee wages, price levels, the real exchange rate of RMB, fiscal expenditure and total retail sales of social consumer goods. The pulse response function is used to analyze how the fluctuation of RMB effective exchange rate affects other variables in macroeconomic system. The results show that the real effective exchange rate appreciation in the short-term will make the economy suffer a negative impact.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F832.6

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