中国的“产业互促悖论”——基于国内关联与总关联分离视角

发布时间：2018-06-15 17:29

本文选题：生产性服务业 + 全球化　；参考：《中国工业经济》2014年10期

【摘要】：中国的"产业互促悖论"是指,伴随世界工业和服务业关联程度日益增强,世界的经济服务化日益明显;而伴随中国工业和服务业的互动增强,中国工业化却阻碍本国服务业发展的现象。本文主要基于1995、1997、2000、2002、2005、2007年和2010年非竞争型投入产出表,分离了中国工业和服务业的总关联和国内关联。研究发现:包括国内和国外关联的中国第二、三产业总关联,远远大于剔除进口中间投入作用的国内关联;时序上,中国第二、三产业总关联不断增强,而产业间的国内关联强度呈先下降后上升趋势;产业间的国内关联和总关联偏差持续扩大。说明中国式工业化是建立在世界发达国家高级生产性服务业高度发展和制造业生产的非一体化基础之上,对国内生产性服务业具有阻碍作用。但近几年,这种阻碍中国经济服务化的力量有趋于减弱迹象。本文研究对中国调整产业结构和全球化战略具有重要而明确的政策涵义:打造中国经济升级版,有必要谋求制造业和服务业保持平衡发展,也应适时扬弃出口导向型发展战略,转而实施基于内需的全球化战略,发展创新型经济。
[Abstract]:The paradox of mutual promotion of industry in China means that with the increasing connection between world industry and service industry, the world economy becomes more and more service-oriented, while the interaction between Chinese industry and service industry increases. China's industrialization has hindered the development of its service industry. Based on the non-competitive input-output tables of 1995 / 1997 / 2002,2007 and 2010, the total and domestic correlations of Chinese industry and service industry are separated. The study found that the total association of China's second and third industries, including domestic and foreign links, is far greater than that of excluding intermediate inputs from imports; in time series, the total associations of the second and third industries in China are constantly increasing. However, the domestic correlation intensity between industries decreased first and then increased, and the domestic correlation and total correlation deviation between industries continued to expand. It is concluded that Chinese industrialization is based on the non-integration of advanced producer services and manufacturing production in developed countries and hinders domestic producer services. But in recent years, there have been signs that the forces holding back China's service economy are weakening. This study has important and clear policy implications for China's industrial restructuring and globalization strategy: to build an upgraded version of China's economy, it is necessary to seek a balanced development between manufacturing and service industries, and to abandon the export-oriented development strategy at the right time. Turn to implement the strategy of globalization based on domestic demand, and develop innovative economy.
【作者单位】：南京财经大学现代服务业研究院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目“我国服务业二元结构及其对城市居民收入分配的影响研究”(批准号13CJL021) 江苏省社会科学基金重大项目“利用市场机制倒逼江苏产业结构调整研究”(批准号13ZD006) 江苏高校哲学社会科学研究项目“利用负面清单制度调整优化江苏产业结构研究”(批准号2014SJB136)
【分类号】：F124

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